Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C or below on March 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8e080627fbd5e0a85c2796235dc7a0363c8839c296f1a7973839f933e104ff8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,873
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,873 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 7c | 804.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 47c | 762.9$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…76afbacked No | 50c | 379.68$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.55 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -10.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked No | 26c | 319.19$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.86 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 60c | 319$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.46 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 10c | 301.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 35c | 291.66$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.28 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c3…ac62backed Yes | 74c | 248.73$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.35 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 43c | 244.8$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.84 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed No | 14c | 236$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 16c | 213.19$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 46c | 155.04$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.78 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 63c | 149$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.77 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 40c | 146.64$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.1 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 30c | 144.4$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked No | 14c | 125.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…0bd2backed No | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -9.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 43c | 119.54$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.7 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa269…be11backed No | 18c | 91.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 61c | 90$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 19c | 83.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd67c…30d0backed Yes | 63c | 78.21$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…63d9backed Yes | 70c | 75.98$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 28c | 69.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 18c | 65.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 27c | 63.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked No | 37c | 59.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 45c | 55.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 45c | 53.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked Yes | 66c | 47.61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…4005backed No | 58c | 43.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 108 | 41.7%45 W · 63 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 69c | 42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 40c | 40.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 73c | 39.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0eb…a7d8backed Yes | 66c | 37.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 36c | 36.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 58c | 36.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8209…62b6backed Yes | 42c | 35.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 96 | 25%24 W · 72 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 60c | 35.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 56c | 35.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 58c | 34.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed Yes | 65c | 34.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 51c | 31.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf1…c28cbacked Yes | 67c | 31.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de1…5301backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 69 | 85.5%59 W · 10 L | +10.0wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 60c | 30.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 111 | 72.1%80 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6c…d8cdbacked Yes | 65c | 30.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 73 | 75.3%55 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked Yes | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 48c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…a957backed Yes | 66c | 27.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 39 | 76.9%30 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45c1…4a23backed Yes | 80c | 26.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 66cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked Yes | 44c | 24.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 64c | 23.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ea…4d9fbacked Yes | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 146 | 17.1%25 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 54c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…4f99backed Yes | 67c | 18.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed Yes | 74c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad65…b49ebacked Yes | 70c | 16.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 77 | 71.4%55 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8abc…9e55backed Yes | 67c | 16.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7781…adddbacked Yes | 71c | 15.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4e…b99abacked Yes | 71c | 15.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 76cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C or below on March 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on March 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.