South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Ceará SC win on 2025-11-29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8efd20e56381fc8c87f09707e07397a52d5d26e3ce1556ed2c50ab0001da12b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,636
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,978
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,636 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a09…db1cbacked No | 66c | 5,744$3,778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,966.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 35c | 5,013$1,741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,740.96 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 34c | 1,822$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.71 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 76c | 1,753$1,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.02 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 28c | 845.32$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.81 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 70c | 804$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.2 | 192 | 39.1%75 W · 117 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 29c | 697.87$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.07 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 27c | 551$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.48 | 271 | 33.9%92 W · 179 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 33c | 550.02$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.97 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d94…40e6backed No | 32c | 460$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.8 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb291…271ebacked No | 77c | 455$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.65 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | +10.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x290f…7e47backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 67c | 175$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.73 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 69c | 164$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.16 | 181 | 29.8%54 W · 127 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc671…b0c7backed No | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.29 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d04…cfc5backed No | 76c | 131.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc72b…3756backed No | 77c | 86$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb327…0fccbacked Yes | 35c | 84.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 76c | 60.22$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…79c2backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Yes | 41c | 54.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -10.4wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -46%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c9…b445backed Yes | 36c | 54.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 29c | 51.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 162 | 34.6%56 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9270…7c9ebacked No | 75c | 49.59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Yes | 38c | 33.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1182…b6bbbacked Yes | 31c | 33.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x740e…06f1backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ecb…6c64backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…7f61backed No | 71c | 19.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed81…de98backed No | 73c | 16.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x623c…2ebbbacked No | 78c | 13.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ceará SC win on 2025-11-29?this page
- Will Ceará SC vs. Cruzeiro EC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2025-11-29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.