South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2025-11-29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x577cd33a2726f2968b2f1b8c7c0326d2b0aede3cc5174ebb2d879b96900bc340
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,039
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,773
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,039 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 61c | 15,000$9,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,850 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Yes | 39c | 14,965$5,836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,836.35 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 75c | 5,598$4,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,405 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 29c | 1,354$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.26 | 271 | 33.9%92 W · 179 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1182…b6bbbacked Yes | 21c | 973.63$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.05 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 59c | 857.53$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.46 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 37c | 812.83$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.75 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 40c | 740$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.42 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 62c | 724.13$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.83 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01db…16e3backed Yes | 42c | 711.9$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 22c | 691.93$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.64 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14fa…73f0backed Yes | 37c | 641.39$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 31c | 622$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.36 | 181 | 29.8%54 W · 127 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 68c | 525.5$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.69 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 25c | 360.51$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.3 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d94…40e6backed Yes | 30c | 330$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc671…b0c7backed Yes | 35c | 281.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.75 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 41c | 190$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.9 | 192 | 39.1%75 W · 117 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 36c | 178$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.6 | 329 | 36.5%120 W · 209 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8a…d30fbacked Yes | 37c | 161.28$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…770cbacked Yes | 35c | 147$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.04 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 75c | 115.49$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9827…e5ffbacked No | 58c | 106.33$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +123%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 398 | 53%211 W · 187 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 41c | 99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.59 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc72b…3756backed No | 49c | 86$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.86 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 65c | 80.13$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb1…4df1backed Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +43%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…dc85backed Yes | 41c | 57.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ab…44dfbacked Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2fd…49eebacked Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…a925backed Yes | 34c | 44.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3149…9762backed Yes | 37c | 42.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a77…d70abacked Yes | 35c | 31.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x740e…06f1backed Yes | 35c | 29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc1…bde5backed Yes | 45c | 28.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed81…de98backed Yes | 45c | 27.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 55c | 25.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 125 | 62.4%78 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcad…0a68backed No | 64c | 25.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed No | 72c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 62cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2025-11-29?this page
- Will Ceará SC vs. Cruzeiro EC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Ceará SC win on 2025-11-29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.