Champions League · resolved market
Will LAFC vs. Esperance Sportive end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc90192a07244fb0db4ecbc1003f2f17b23466ee1a2199b35905c1e963c3aa314
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,454
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,744
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,454 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21a9…d8bfbacked Yes | 0c | 10,180$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x249f…5981backed Yes | 30c | 2,341$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 70c | 2,170$1,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.88 | 398 | 42.2%168 W · 230 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 74c | 1,428$1,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.58 | 389 | 35.2%137 W · 252 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f1…a19ebacked Yes | 29c | 1,267$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.61 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 71c | 961.41$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.81 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 26c | 907.5$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.95 | 239 | 42.7%102 W · 137 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae55…41c0backed Yes | 15c | 810$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.9 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Yes | 13c | 605.46$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.8 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 51c | 502.52$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.4 | 307 | 54.1%166 W · 141 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Yes | 27c | 331$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.37 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed No | 64c | 323.77$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.05 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Yes | 35c | 287.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…f137backed Yes | 51c | 260.85$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.03 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 65c | 234.23$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.98 | 368 | 51.1%188 W · 180 L | +15.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca0…140ebacked Yes | 29c | 192.31$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.77 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50c2…cd78backed Yes | 29c | 137.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed No | 73c | 137.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab3e…6939backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 27c | 129.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45db…51c6backed No | 73c | 120.53$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 71c | 84$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 449 | 55.7%250 W · 199 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed No | 65c | 77.9$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 187 | 58.8%110 W · 77 L | +18.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x26ff…8ed7backed No | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.42per pick | 75cpaid | -55%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 217 | 44.7%97 W · 120 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf442…ccf8backed Yes | 46c | 48.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9839…040ebacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -7.7wins | -0.17per pick | 36cpaid | -57%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 76c | 29.81$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 71c | 27.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 469 | 56.5%265 W · 204 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d6…0062backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…cbcdbacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 383 | 56.7%217 W · 166 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e86…1f02backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will LAFC vs. Esperance Sportive end in a draw?this page
- Will Esperance Sportive beat LAFC?Yes won
- Will LAFC beat Esperance Sportive?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.