Ligue 1 · resolved market
AJ Auxerre vs. FC Nantes: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc953d50ab77b7506e10f09af540a5a060c6cd864ac7bad4705dc575cd786e8a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,799
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,048
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,799 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 25c | 799.73$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.86 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 61c | 563.34$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.21 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 69c | 487.53$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.54 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 15c | 443.49$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.43 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +6.7wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…c87bbacked Under | 59c | 195.08$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.98 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Over | 13c | 189.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 32c | 173.93$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.88 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 78c | 168.46$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.85 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 42c | 99.81$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 223 | 40.8%91 W · 132 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 42c | 90.59$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…e772backed Under | 80c | 86.45$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 57c | 76.28$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 525 | 50.1%263 W · 262 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Under | 80c | 72.25$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 80c | 72.25$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 80c | 72.25$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 95 | 58.9%56 W · 39 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 80c | 72.25$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 80c | 72.25$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 80c | 61.75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…c6ccbacked Under | 58c | 58.49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…4374backed Over | 43c | 56.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…8f42backed Over | 42c | 48.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -56%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 42c | 45.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 464 | 50.4%234 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…42c1backed Over | 43c | 44.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 69c | 43.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…a2dabacked Under | 58c | 33.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AJ Auxerre vs. FC Nantes: O/U 2.5this page
- AJ Auxerre vs. FC Nantes: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- AJ Auxerre vs. FC Nantes: O/U 1.5Under won
- Spread: AJ Auxerre (-1.5)FC Nantes won
- Spread: FC Nantes (-2.5)AJ Auxerre won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.