TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ligue 1 · resolved market

AJ Auxerre vs. FC Nantes: O/U 1.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,166
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,521

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,166 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under57c2,777$1,594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,182.621,91645.5%872 W · 1,044 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under69c1,860$1,291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$568.9124349.4%120 W · 123 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x00a0…bf76backed Over35c1,442$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.531910.5%2 W · 17 L-4.1wins-0.22per pick32cpaid-74.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc19e…c764backed Over38c1,348$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c80…93b5backed Over38c1,300$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.094544.4%20 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Over40c1,125$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4501637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick42cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2dc…b624backed Over24c1,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2401030%3 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under46c952.42$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.933145%149 W · 182 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under63c812.24$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.0962648.6%304 W · 322 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Over40c624.2$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.571140.2%286 W · 425 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-22.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd119…28abbacked Over62c601.94$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.2425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick62cpaid-62.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3151…206dbacked Over66c593.7$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.84250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Under63c557.83$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.412963.6%82 W · 47 L+12.6wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+14.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over33c544.59$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.391,41540.8%577 W · 838 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacb4…7595backed Under67c520.11$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.84771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x64ae…ead9backed Over11c516.33$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.89641.7%40 W · 56 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over41c312.35$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.553560%21 W · 14 L+6.7wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+44.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x85d8…3cbebacked Over49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$988247.6%39 W · 43 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd147…ecbdbacked Over13c200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266530.8%20 W · 45 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Under63c185.94$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.812556%70 W · 55 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Under63c185.94$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.88058.8%47 W · 33 L+5.2wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Under63c185.94$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.810364.1%66 W · 37 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd27d…a84fbacked Under63c185.94$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.81963.2%12 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick59cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Under63c185.94$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.89558.9%56 W · 39 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Under63c185.94$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.89960.6%60 W · 39 L+7.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+6.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xade2…8757backed Under63c185.94$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.83070%21 W · 9 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f9e…4c57backed Over15c121.22$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.181921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick25cpaid+203%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under62c120.61$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.5759348.4%287 W · 306 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Under32c119.9$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.537343.8%32 W · 41 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+34.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdcab…b9bbbacked Over21c116.33$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.091154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4fc…e772backed Under63c108.64$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.22369.6%16 W · 7 L+3.7wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+32.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd6cf…0425backed Over14c101.61$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.23837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-38.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf2ba…4028backed Over69c98.14$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.7222340.8%91 W · 132 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Under64c85.47$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.797149.3%35 W · 36 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-18.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under31c78$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.8287344.3%387 W · 486 L+1.6wins0.00per pick44cpaid+7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1608…eeb8backed Over70c73.65$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.561050%5 W · 5 L-2.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-32.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa0f3…f727backed Over58c72.7$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.931844.4%8 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-28.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe083…d0d5backed Over69c56.89$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.261060%6 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick70cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5f2…2512backed Over39c46.12$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.992825%7 W · 21 L-4.9wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-47.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x66fc…2720backed Over38c45.05$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.22955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9da…f7d9backed Over36c40.95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.74425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-23.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c53…f170backed Under35c32.32$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa93…a0c9backed Under64c28.44$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.33560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe697…708fbacked Under65c24.68$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.567058.6%41 W · 29 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06e7…3acabacked Under63c23.28$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.613865.8%25 W · 13 L+4.1wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.