Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 29°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc96aef39452c0adbf9907464f2fde0a564b6e5999a3acdb93505caa5762c06df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,047
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,502
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,047 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x398c…c935backed Yes | 15c | 690.77$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.76 | 217 | 35%76 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 8c | 569.95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 65c | 314.06$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.92 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 5c | 216.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd33e…8736backed Yes | 8c | 212.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17d2…4142backed Yes | 35c | 211.07$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.88 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 28c | 173.19$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.49 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 29c | 155$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 74c | 134.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 65c | 129.72$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.4 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 80c | 123.37$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 73c | 118.86$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed Yes | 31c | 111.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 99.42$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…62b4backed Yes | 35c | 98.11$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 35c | 96.14$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 30c | 95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 94.63$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 73c | 93.07$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd211…628bbacked Yes | 17c | 92.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 74c | 81.08$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6f…0c8bbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 23c | 71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 20c | 66.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…4651backed Yes | 18c | 65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 59.87$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 27c | 48.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed No | 65c | 47.11$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 29c | 44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 27c | 43.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 26c | 43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d5…0560backed Yes | 26c | 38.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 38.94$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b3…f95ebacked No | 66c | 34.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 77c | 33.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1718…957abacked No | 66c | 32.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6851…ec54backed No | 70c | 31.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11ea…1676backed No | 65c | 23.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 76c | 20.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 71c | 18.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 18.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 29°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 24°C or below on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 27°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 28°C on August 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.