Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Rublev (-1.5) vs Darderi (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc98d61589ad58cb07c9baf52771dca434aa079bc829c32c1c0930ec0bb577861
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rublevof Rublev, Darderi
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,241
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,397
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,241 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Darderi | 68c | 5,807$3,949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,949 | 1,267 | 56.6%717 W · 550 L | -18.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Rublev | 32c | 4,724$1,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,212.02 | 582 | 32%186 W · 396 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31c1…7047backed Darderi | 68c | 2,998$2,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,034 | 798 | 55.9%446 W · 352 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Rublev | 33c | 1,679$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,124.73 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2805…76edbacked Darderi | 67c | 1,525$1,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,021.86 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Rublev | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Rublev | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Rublev | 32c | 937$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.16 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Rublev | 32c | 600$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3c…c98cbacked Darderi | 67c | 579.91$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.54 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Rublev | 33c | 454.54$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.54 | 205 | 42.4%87 W · 118 L | -12.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Rublev | 37c | 395.35$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.31 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x624d…ff0abacked Darderi | 64c | 390.63$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Rublev | 34c | 305.79$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.48 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Rublev | 32c | 300$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 2,247 | 42.7%960 W · 1,287 L | +33.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3171…b991backed Darderi | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 335 | 51.9%174 W · 161 L | -15.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Rublev | 33c | 139.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.79 | 678 | 48.4%328 W · 350 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Rublev | 44c | 110.8$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.05 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Darderi | 56c | 110.8$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.05 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed Darderi | 67c | 52.24$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 147 | 57.8%85 W · 62 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Rublev | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 1,250 | 44.7%559 W · 691 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Rublev | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed Rublev | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 222 | 35.1%78 W · 144 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x701e…6137backed Rublev | 33c | 43.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Darderi | 66c | 36.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb32e…a46abacked Rublev | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8caa…01d2backed Darderi | 67c | 26.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…fce5backed Darderi | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 814 | 57%464 W · 350 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3940…ec45backed Darderi | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Rublev (-1.5) vs Darderi (+1.5)this page
- Andrey Rublev vs. Luciano Darderi: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Rublev vs. Darderi: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Rublev vs. Darderi: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Rublev vs DarderiRublev won
- Set 2 Winner: Rublev vs DarderiRublev won
- Swedish Open: Andrey Rublev vs Luciano DarderiAndrey Rublev won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.