Tennis · resolved market
Andrey Rublev vs. Luciano Darderi: Total Sets O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24ab63ad2482ae0b84e64718ba8d85ac7c83343da09b6b7c9473b6877bfb93db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Under 2.5of Over 2.5, Under 2.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,653
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,651
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,653 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under 2.5 | 56c | 5,408$3,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,379.39 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ab…13a1backed Over 2.5 | 44c | 4,757$2,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,091.34 | 272 | 52.9%144 W · 128 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under 2.5 | 56c | 1,011$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.85 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc57…2b3cbacked Over 2.5 | 44c | 962.14$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.34 | 141 | 51.1%72 W · 69 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc5…d36ebacked Over 2.5 | 44c | 472.34$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.83 | 180 | 44.4%80 W · 100 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under 2.5 | 49c | 309.23$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.09 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f55…2181backed Over 2.5 | 44c | 304.14$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.82 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over 2.5 | 51c | 272.05$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Under 2.5 | 56c | 267.81$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.84 | 205 | 42.4%87 W · 118 L | -12.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Over 2.5 | 67c | 259.85$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.15 | 559 | 41.3%231 W · 328 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under 2.5 | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x624d…ff0abacked Over 2.5 | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over 2.5 | 43c | 140$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 678 | 48.4%328 W · 350 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Under 2.5 | 15c | 121.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.13 | 971 | 41.4%402 W · 569 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b1…8e7dbacked Under 2.5 | 57c | 113.83$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe081…0bf5backed Over 2.5 | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ca…0d75backed Over 2.5 | 49c | 102.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17f5…f087backed Over 2.5 | 44c | 98.52$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 177 | 57.6%102 W · 75 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under 2.5 | 56c | 94.52$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.59 | 1,541 | 49.2%758 W · 783 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf595…fd9ebacked Over 2.5 | 43c | 69.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…bdafbacked Over 2.5 | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x186a…559dbacked Over 2.5 | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 449 | 52.8%237 W · 212 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x523a…76aebacked Over 2.5 | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x378c…14b8backed Under 2.5 | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -8.1wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3639…9014backed Over 2.5 | 47c | 21.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Under 2.5 | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 578 | 45.7%264 W · 314 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Andrey Rublev vs. Luciano Darderi: Total Sets O/U 2.5this page
- Rublev vs. Darderi: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Rublev vs. Darderi: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Rublev vs DarderiRublev won
- Set 2 Winner: Rublev vs DarderiRublev won
- Set Handicap: Rublev (-1.5) vs Darderi (+1.5)Rublev won
- Swedish Open: Andrey Rublev vs Luciano DarderiAndrey Rublev won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.