Tennis · resolved market
Set 2 Winner: Rublev vs Darderi
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8f34fa1bee3ee4f70ea792260aa606a1d8558c671bee7a1f8731d58e5aa0be4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rublevof Rublev, Darderi
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,076
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,097
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,076 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd575…e017backed Darderi | 38c | 1,310$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Rublev | 61c | 789.8$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.46 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77d5…732ebacked Darderi | 40c | 399.99$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 345 | 55.1%190 W · 155 L | +19.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Rublev | 58c | 338.68$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.68 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Rublev | 62c | 256$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.28 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50ca…bfddbacked Darderi | 43c | 233.8$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.54 | 603 | 42%253 W · 350 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Rublev | 71c | 191.19$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.78 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Rublev | 61c | 150.66$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.01 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Rublev | 65c | 95.22$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Rublev | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 788 | 57.1%450 W · 338 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x253f…4253backed Darderi | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d79…9e95backed Rublev | 57c | 30.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 148 | 52.7%78 W · 70 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…d5dabacked Rublev | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 519 | 42.6%221 W · 298 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 2 Winner: Rublev vs Darderithis page
- Andrey Rublev vs. Luciano Darderi: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Rublev vs. Darderi: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Rublev vs. Darderi: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Rublev vs DarderiRublev won
- Set Handicap: Rublev (-1.5) vs Darderi (+1.5)Rublev won
- Swedish Open: Andrey Rublev vs Luciano DarderiAndrey Rublev won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.