MLB · resolved market
Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc99c3d5cdd66cc65200671a2d7efceaf581c898cc28be989d1531c6741f054ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cardinalsof Diamondbacks, Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,925
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,682
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,925 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Cardinals | 47c | 20,593$9,679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,914.2 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Diamondbacks | 53c | 14,940$7,918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,918 | 237 | 52.7%125 W · 112 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Diamondbacks | 52c | 4,164$2,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,174.95 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbedb…8687backed Cardinals | 48c | 3,465$1,663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,801.9 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Diamondbacks | 53c | 2,034$1,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,085.92 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0074…8559backed Cardinals | 45c | 2,000$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b56…4a30backed Cardinals | 45c | 1,973$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,085.15 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked Diamondbacks | 53c | 1,500$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1565…e6b0backed Diamondbacks | 55c | 1,200$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Diamondbacks | 10c | 1,101$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 205 | 23.4%48 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e49…8282backed Diamondbacks | 55c | 1,073$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf52…7660backed Diamondbacks | 55c | 1,018$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.9 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Cardinals | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 333 | 49.5%165 W · 168 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8092…da08backed Cardinals | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Cardinals | 46c | 979$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.66 | 885 | 49.7%440 W · 445 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8c…8d36backed Diamondbacks | 55c | 955$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20d8…f77abacked Diamondbacks | 55c | 927$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.85 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…63e0backed Diamondbacks | 55c | 911$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…a9acbacked Cardinals | 45c | 911$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.05 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Diamondbacks | 53c | 905.81$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.72 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed Cardinals | 46c | 900$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486 | 204 | 50.5%103 W · 101 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Diamondbacks | 52c | 891.23$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.44 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadbb…b5c0backed Cardinals | 45c | 889$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.95 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…22f1backed Diamondbacks | 55c | 889$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45ad…7f76backed Diamondbacks | 54c | 888$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.52 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa593…4ac5backed Cardinals | 45c | 800$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e9…0501backed Cardinals | 46c | 800$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Diamondbacks | 6c | 744.21$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Diamondbacks | 54c | 658.82$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.97 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Cardinals | 72c | 604.15$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.9 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf75…7352backed Diamondbacks | 55c | 600$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -61%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cardinals | 73c | 505.55$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.97 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Cardinals | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 932 | 40.5%377 W · 555 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked Cardinals | 47c | 470$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.15 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Diamondbacks | 59c | 451.22$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.17 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd33b…4e00backed Cardinals | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.78 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…35ffbacked Diamondbacks | 3c | 415.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 505 | 3.8%19 W · 486 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x674d…def3backed Cardinals | 44c | 371.74$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.17 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58d2…46e6backed Cardinals | 36c | 300$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 309 | 28.5%88 W · 221 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4472…a648backed Diamondbacks | 56c | 223.21$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 999 | 51%509 W · 490 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Cardinals | 45c | 222$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.1 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0912…5739backed Cardinals | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…f8edbacked Cardinals | 47c | 213.45$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.45 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c88…d15dbacked Cardinals | 47c | 213$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.89 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…560dbacked Diamondbacks | 53c | 212.98$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Cardinals | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed Cardinals | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Diamondbacks | 53c | 177.94$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.31 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Diamondbacks | 62c | 174.24$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.32 | 1,097 | 50.1%550 W · 547 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Cardinals | 49c | 140.34$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.19 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…80bebacked Cardinals | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.66 | 238 | 52.9%126 W · 112 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Diamondbacks | 52c | 125$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.21 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | -7.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Cardinals | 46c | 124.14$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.74 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3539…b17bbacked Diamondbacks | 17c | 118.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…126cbacked Cardinals | 48c | 104.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Diamondbacks | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 494 | 50%247 W · 247 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…c011backed Cardinals | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 138 | 48.6%67 W · 71 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Diamondbacks | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…01dabacked Diamondbacks | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 117 | 57.3%67 W · 50 L | +9.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40b4…4751backed Diamondbacks | 54c | 95.63$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4010…9236backed Cardinals | 48c | 92.06$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.87 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c88…5685backed Diamondbacks | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x498c…9b68backed Diamondbacks | 51c | 75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb58d…818ebacked Diamondbacks | 54c | 74.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.49 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Diamondbacks | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Diamondbacks | 53c | 60.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Cardinals | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Diamondbacks | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 382 | 45.5%174 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…c863backed Diamondbacks | 55c | 44.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…0aa4backed Cardinals | 47c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 1,293 | 46.6%603 W · 690 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Diamondbacks | 54c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4019…3838backed Cardinals | 47c | 26.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Diamondbacks | 56c | 25.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77ca…612fbacked Diamondbacks | 56c | 24.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Diamondbacks | 52c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9f…3cc5backed Cardinals | 46c | 23.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c2…f57abacked Cardinals | 46c | 23.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Cardinals | 45c | 22.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.