Serie A · resolved market
AC Milan vs. SS Lazio: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9a40431346102798924695e23f2a81e2b5b5179dadba2ba520ffaded4678d3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,795
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,229
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,795 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 66c | 18,718$12,352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,365.86 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0f…a318backed Over | 28c | 13,499$3,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,719.78 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -4.8wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Over | 46c | 3,333$1,533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,533.17 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Over | 44c | 2,500$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3893…6e0cbacked Over | 46c | 1,174$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Under | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.86 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 40c | 850$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…e0e1backed Over | 43c | 811.88$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Under | 54c | 535.89$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.51 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +6.8wins | +0.24per pick | 35cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 56c | 506.7$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.85 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked Under | 56c | 500$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Over | 48c | 250$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 114 | 29.8%34 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc270…1379backed Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 54c | 207.88$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.63 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Under | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 53c | 181.31$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.53 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x783e…d7c8backed Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 54c | 169.13$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.3 | 527 | 48%253 W · 274 L | -35.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Under | 75c | 165.98$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.88 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d04…cfc5backed Under | 77c | 129.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked Under | 74c | 124.32$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.32 | 125 | 65.6%82 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 44c | 75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 156 | 48.7%76 W · 80 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 61c | 71.41$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 248 | 49.2%122 W · 126 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Over | 41c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 147 | 40.8%60 W · 87 L | -14.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…48abbacked Over | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 54c | 66.15$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.43 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…48bbbacked Over | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Over | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 339 | 51.6%175 W · 164 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f5…86a8backed Over | 38c | 60.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…2e48backed Over | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Over | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 123 | 47.2%58 W · 65 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Over | 43c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…4f30backed Over | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 62c | 29.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Under | 55c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3827…8f92backed Under | 80c | 26.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 272 | 26.8%73 W · 199 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Under | 61c | 16.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 89 | 52.8%47 W · 42 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AC Milan vs. SS Lazio: O/U 2.5this page
- AC Milan vs. SS Lazio: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- AC Milan vs. SS Lazio: O/U 1.5Under won
- AC Milan vs. SS Lazio: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: AC Milan (-1.5)SS Lazio won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.