Serie A · resolved market
AC Milan vs. SS Lazio: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec517fa2a58d74bbd1134ef95a34026f58d8511e61ef56b9f1e305cfcb552a21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,161
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,952
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,161 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Under | 44c | 3,000$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,680 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 1,815$844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$971.77 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 61c | 1,468$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$896.25 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…afb3backed Over | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Over | 69c | 830.77$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.15 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa8…645bbacked Over | 38c | 525$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 39c | 439.11$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.18 | 176 | 51.7%91 W · 85 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 43c | 414.12$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.14 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…2c0abacked Over | 75c | 304.83$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5a…ca43backed Over | 69c | 289.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 37c | 240$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.45 | 284 | 45.4%129 W · 155 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78a4…ea47backed Over | 47c | 233.21$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 39c | 212.21$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.63 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Over | 49c | 159.36$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7082backed Over | 72c | 149.47$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.62 | 109 | 51.4%56 W · 53 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 57c | 137.2$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.01 | 527 | 48%253 W · 274 L | -35.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 73c | 133$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.9 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 28c | 122.47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.18 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc460…0aa4backed Over | 72c | 111.11$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x051c…f25dbacked Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -7.9wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 26c | 96.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.41 | 314 | 41.4%130 W · 184 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f1…2d5fbacked Over | 69c | 57.14$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Under | 29c | 55.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.48 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Under | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 267 | 44.6%119 W · 148 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x423d…c621backed Over | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Over | 65c | 35.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb375…59d6backed Under | 32c | 33.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 272 | 26.8%73 W · 199 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AC Milan vs. SS Lazio: O/U 1.5this page
- AC Milan vs. SS Lazio: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- AC Milan vs. SS Lazio: O/U 2.5Under won
- AC Milan vs. SS Lazio: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: AC Milan (-1.5)SS Lazio won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.