AI · resolved market
Will Mira Murati join Anthropic?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9a879291dc8c2d842dd77e3157a90bc46debb925dcfe93d737fdf91447a91cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,058
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,058 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x167a…e952backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 2c | 2,096$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.98 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 1,501$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed Yes | 2c | 1,482$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.42 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb6…e94ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,160$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1962…ffb3backed Yes | 4c | 1,067$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc125…15fcbacked Yes | 26c | 780.4$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x831e…8db9backed Yes | 13c | 762.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b8…762dbacked Yes | 7c | 547.11$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 9cpaid | +351%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62c3…b47abacked Yes | 8c | 512.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 3c | 440.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeca…9826backed Yes | 18c | 278.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1640…8633backed Yes | 6c | 256.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed Yes | 16c | 236.31$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -75%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd568…ba70backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 9c | 175.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6248…51cfbacked Yes | 8c | 162.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3814…588dbacked Yes | 13c | 149.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 13c | 99.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8679…333bbacked Yes | 19c | 63.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9385…0649backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6816…b693backed No | 31c | 55.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.63 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.