South American Leagues · resolved market
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-10-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9b47d70913e274a5d245802086d1061a56831f40724158fb107def98a35bf31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,315
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,243
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,315 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 80c | 25,000$20,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 322 | 42.5%137 W · 185 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 20c | 21,263$4,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,252.29 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ea…a857backed No | 19c | 6,697$1,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,247.52 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed No | 22c | 3,250$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715 | 436 | 18.8%82 W · 354 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 80c | 500.6$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.6 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca3…cb95backed Yes | 79c | 400$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 20c | 336.17$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.23 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 21c | 322.18$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.66 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked No | 20c | 309.9$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.38 | 162 | 34.6%56 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…0dd9backed No | 22c | 128.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 144 | 22.9%33 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked No | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed No | 18c | 107.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc487…dc86backed Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 21c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 21c | 48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 318 | 27%86 W · 232 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55da…839abacked Yes | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf307…5f69backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f55…6389backed Yes | 79c | 22.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 74cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…eea2backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa508…7371backed Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…52f0backed Yes | 79c | 13.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-10-11?this page
- Will EC Juventude win on 2025-10-11?No won
- Will SE Palmeiras vs. EC Juventude end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.