Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9d788488b538ea1fc7248e5ff2ae7e340e995f951164a738762dd53fe43e02e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,685
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,875
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,685 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 15c | 1,009$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.77 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 20c | 695.83$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 9c | 638.39$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.05 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 15c | 534.6$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7d…b30ebacked Yes | 21c | 390.29$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.57 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d14…c13abacked Yes | 7c | 304.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d51…c019backed Yes | 22c | 135$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 22c | 128.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 76c | 127$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 10c | 118.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 12c | 105$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 13c | 99.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbea…d08cbacked Yes | 12c | 81.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 24c | 76.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8176…1145backed Yes | 15c | 71.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 16c | 67.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 16c | 63.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…edf6backed Yes | 22c | 61.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 79c | 56.19$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 79c | 45.12$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 24c | 43.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 80c | 38.77$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 78c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 74c | 32.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 79c | 26.15$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 15.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 78c | 15.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 78c | 15.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C or below on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.