Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68f330d19f6230d4666bb84e91c4c5c637f2f4848e0afbd6a221420cad89ae6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,234
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,611
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,234 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 1c | 1,468$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 33c | 1,107$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.49 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 13c | 596.7$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.48 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 55c | 441.4$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.01 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 393.18$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.88 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 13c | 373.36$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.91 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 49c | 340.29$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.17 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 323.7$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.72 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 69c | 315.94$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.12 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 67c | 278.3$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.12 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 70c | 263.64$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.36 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 28c | 255$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.25 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 33c | 245$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.49 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 29c | 242.81$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.96 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 23c | 237.03$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.19 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 14c | 232.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 206.32$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.4 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 68c | 197.96$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.21 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 183$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.67 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 178.39$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.97 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 28c | 174.53$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.44 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 66c | 172.37$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.99 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 41c | 171.36$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.1 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 168$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.47 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 34c | 160.79$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.93 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 33c | 160.75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.75 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 71c | 159.94$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.72 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 73c | 136.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 42c | 134.62$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.69 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x571d…4e76backed Yes | 20c | 131.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.84 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 18c | 124.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 120$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.09 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 31c | 116.86$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.2 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba22…e546backed Yes | 26c | 113.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.79 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 26c | 111$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.42 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d3…5122backed Yes | 76c | 110$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 61c | 106.84$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.75 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 106.18$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.71 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 101$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.26 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 26c | 100.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.86 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb139…29a1backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 35c | 99.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.49 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 33c | 98.9$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.91 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 68c | 95.91$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.41 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 31c | 92.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.8 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7a…d837backed Yes | 25c | 92.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.14 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +59%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 90$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.49 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.34 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 72c | 83$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.59 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 69c | 78.38$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.02 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 29c | 77.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.18 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 62c | 75.79$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 35c | 70.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.53 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 66c | 67.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.08 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…fc9bbacked Yes | 30c | 66.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.91 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 73c | 60.48$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.98 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.66 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.66 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 64c | 58.81$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 69c | 55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 37c | 50.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9775…b70dbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.97 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4277…30a5backed Yes | 29c | 45.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.21 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 29c | 45.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…6ab4backed No | 71c | 43.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 36c | 43.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.82 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3f…bc25backed No | 73c | 41.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 72c | 40.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 28c | 39.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x309b…40a1backed Yes | 28c | 39.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 30c | 38.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked No | 73c | 36.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 41c | 35.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6c…5dd4backed Yes | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…af38backed No | 67c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 40c | 33.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 31c | 32.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 68c | 29.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 69c | 29.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 43c | 28.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 49c | 28.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 60c | 28.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x998a…745bbacked No | 72c | 27.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96a2…a1a7backed No | 69c | 27.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed Yes | 75c | 26.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95ea…b56fbacked Yes | 78c | 25.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 77c | 24.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 71c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 76c | 23.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 67c | 21.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 51c | 20.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…66f7backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 60c | 17.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f3…8faabacked Yes | 68c | 16.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C or below on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.