Europa Conference League · resolved market
FCSB vs. FK Auda: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9ef8cfdec7f98e8f0c3630771c7644ead80e988ca452ff7ad5e3fbd7d86200b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,930
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,748
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,930 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x34a1…7622backed Under | 39c | 2,339$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.01 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 61c | 1,533$929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10a6…4d8bbacked Under | 38c | 1,098$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.66 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 40c | 845.16$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.93 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 61c | 716$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.24 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 64c | 584.76$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.25 | 638 | 57.2%365 W · 273 L | +35.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…5922backed Over | 50c | 539.64$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.64 | 42 | 90.5%38 W · 4 L | +10.6wins | +0.25per pick | 65cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…e2c5backed Under | 42c | 500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 67c | 490.77$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.2 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcea…545bbacked Under | 71c | 375.52$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.77 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…5513backed Over | 21c | 361$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.19 | 280 | 12.9%36 W · 244 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Under | 66c | 357.95$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.25 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 37c | 217.08$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.32 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 63c | 196.58$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.78 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Over | 59c | 170.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.44 | 274 | 37.2%102 W · 172 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 21c | 166.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 106 | 27.4%29 W · 77 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3968…85b5backed Over | 50c | 157.03$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.08 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +8.4wins | +0.23per pick | 46cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 51c | 121$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.09 | 351 | 46.2%162 W · 189 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…40fabacked Over | 40c | 107.5$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5d…df19backed Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 52c | 90.91$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.27 | 501 | 54.7%274 W · 227 L | +20.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 53c | 83.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.75 | 377 | 50.9%192 W · 185 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 60c | 64.02$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0852…655cbacked Over | 33c | 58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.86 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Under | 67c | 58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Over | 37c | 35.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2126…aeebbacked Under | 53c | 21.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Under | 67c | 18.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -5.8wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FCSB vs. FK Auda: O/U 4.5this page
- FCSB vs. FK Auda: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FCSB vs. FK Auda: FCSB O/U 1.5Over won
- FCSB vs. FK Auda: FK Auda O/U 2.5Over won
- FCSB vs. FK Auda: O/U 2.5Over won
- FCSB vs. FK Auda: O/U 3.5Over won
- FCSB vs. FK Auda: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FCSB (-1.5)FK Auda won
- Spread: FCSB (-2.5)FK Auda won
- Spread: FK Auda (-1.5)FCSB won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.