Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern win on 2025-12-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca1df08509eb92994bc4ac70fd42f09f5bf93d7c97dcdf05e9ba2462631401f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $93,563
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $97,135
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,563 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 29c | 60,000$17,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,400 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 65c | 25,919$16,848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,070.48 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 59c | 17,947$10,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,394.29 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 59c | 7,653$4,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,157.51 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 41c | 5,997$2,459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,458.7 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -65%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked No | 59c | 5,000$2,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,049.99 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 40c | 3,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80f0…b824backed Yes | 1c | 2,200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f99cbacked Yes | 40c | 1,002$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 62c | 820.6$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.31 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…0adbbacked Yes | 43c | 807$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.01 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked Yes | 43c | 700$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 23c | 500$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Yes | 41c | 500$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9020…2cfcbacked Yes | 11c | 427.27$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a51…4cc0backed Yes | 6c | 402.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 7c | 383.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa10…768bbacked Yes | 43c | 348.84$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 41c | 233.78$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a7…07cdbacked No | 60c | 147.35$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Yes | 41c | 147.19$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0157…d8dcbacked Yes | 41c | 146.34$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +17%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Yes | 44c | 135.16$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb327…0fccbacked Yes | 41c | 120.73$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee35…11ecbacked Yes | 43c | 116.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c67…21eebacked Yes | 46c | 112.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.97 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -7.3wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 147 | 26.5%39 W · 108 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e66…921dbacked Yes | 42c | 85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 75c | 84.66$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Yes | 45c | 77.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa521…4599backed Yes | 42c | 73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…0290backed Yes | 42c | 66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Yes | 38c | 58.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…c85dbacked No | 59c | 54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -7.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d19fbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 30c | 47.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b2…c24ebacked No | 65c | 43.08$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 64cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd53e…e70cbacked No | 62c | 38.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…a94bbacked Yes | 42c | 38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 45cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4e…e3a4backed No | 58c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 43c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…f244backed Yes | 42c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc86f…341dbacked No | 58c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfacf…e97abacked No | 58c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…b479backed No | 59c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -5.4wins | -0.24per pick | 43cpaid | -69%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7773…f936backed No | 58c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9af9…89bcbacked No | 58c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 74c | 20.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3020…bc04backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…edcebacked No | 58c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 60c | 16.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern win on 2025-12-20?this page
- Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. 1. FC Magdeburg end in a draw?No won
- Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2025-12-20?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.