Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2025-12-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69cfa34c9ad2d9e90e8ad1e7230b596d579b750f53066a0c90e5c5ab53b882f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,808
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,808 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 25c | 50,000$12,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,509.98 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Yes | 58c | 17,508$10,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,353.5 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 64c | 14,920$9,482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,437.84 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked No | 66c | 6,000$3,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,960 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -65%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed No | 31c | 5,000$1,572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,572.49 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 74c | 2,022$1,491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.28 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed No | 29c | 1,500$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 79c | 772.66$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.77 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 53c | 404.08$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.79 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked No | 63c | 400$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ce3bbacked Yes | 63c | 334.4$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.83 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Yes | 35c | 285.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.61 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 6c | 278.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 38c | 270.36$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.28 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d8…99aebacked No | 66c | 181.96$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.1 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…9c1ebacked No | 15c | 164.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…7db9backed Yes | 35c | 159.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a60…4c00backed Yes | 72c | 145.81$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d8…b6aebacked No | 15c | 117.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 204 | 36.3%74 W · 130 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 60c | 95$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.17 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Yes | 34c | 91.52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.4 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 34c | 74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.84 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed No | 15c | 72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Yes | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96f1…b6d8backed Yes | 79c | 63.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Yes | 65c | 45.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…c9fdbacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb3…ae1ebacked Yes | 76c | 36.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73e…18a2backed No | 68c | 35.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d8d…9693backed Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Yes | 39c | 29.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 205 | 40%82 W · 123 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Yes | 35c | 29.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Yes | 74c | 14.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2025-12-20?this page
- Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. 1. FC Magdeburg end in a draw?No won
- Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern win on 2025-12-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.