Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. 1. FC Magdeburg end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18a5e8e00b73cf15ad50c2812a581d377f35e62d8c8ed6cbd3d7b01b1a99f52e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,701
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,927
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,701 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 11c | 3,000$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.85 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe930…b44dbacked Yes | 23c | 911.91$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.74 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 19c | 700$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 78c | 480.49$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.5 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked No | 76c | 263.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 24c | 263.16$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.16 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -65%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9020…2cfcbacked Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb545…6e0abacked Yes | 18c | 218.28$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca6f…e727backed Yes | 21c | 148.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed Yes | 25c | 114$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9061…9510backed Yes | 25c | 105$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Yes | 25c | 99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0272…7deabacked Yes | 22c | 89.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa49…949ebacked Yes | 25c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 21c | 64.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…3a8abacked Yes | 21c | 62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf29e…468cbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…c8c0backed Yes | 25c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.6wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…7db9backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1313…866abacked No | 75c | 39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca65…6746backed No | 75c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe9…a400backed No | 75c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd253…14d9backed No | 75c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2342…d7cebacked No | 75c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84c6…f8afbacked No | 75c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x152c…3b50backed No | 75c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95c4…a93bbacked No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7399…fe96backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +73%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d9…6febbacked No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…8c58backed No | 79c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf71c…488bbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3be0…e4e5backed No | 75c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 71cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 80c | 18.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd568…655ebacked No | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bd…d82dbacked No | 75c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…0751backed No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88d0…524cbacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…de52backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 73c | 14.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5935…b8dabacked No | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. 1. FC Magdeburg end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern win on 2025-12-20?No won
- Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2025-12-20?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.