NHL · resolved market
KHL: Shanghai Dragons vs. Barys Astana
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca2d73a394fb70b326f376ca8f7250b2f70d9dcd3ab4aa6788dcfdf1a51253c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Barys Astanaof Shanghai Dragons, Barys Astana
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,272
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,272 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f19…febfbacked Barys Astana | 40c | 3,600$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,160 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3492…bc08backed Shanghai Dragons | 60c | 3,600$2,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,160 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa372…7247backed Barys Astana | 48c | 896.87$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.15 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 64cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1150…e701backed Shanghai Dragons | 54c | 833.24$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.92 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab30…379fbacked Shanghai Dragons | 7c | 499.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ff…e90ebacked Shanghai Dragons | 60c | 298.54$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.12 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfd…ff86backed Barys Astana | 40c | 200.83$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Barys Astana | 37c | 124.72$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.96 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Shanghai Dragons | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 162 | 35.2%57 W · 105 L | -9.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4888…f20bbacked Barys Astana | 40c | 97.71$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Barys Astana | 61c | 84.82$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Shanghai Dragons | 63c | 70$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…d960backed Barys Astana | 79c | 60.33$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 366 | 62%227 W · 139 L | +39.1wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf77c…61cabacked Shanghai Dragons | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -45%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…5df2backed Shanghai Dragons | 62c | 50.52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Shanghai Dragons | 24c | 46.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 315 | 40.3%127 W · 188 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Barys Astana | 70c | 30.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.