South American Leagues · resolved market
Grêmio FBPA vs. CD Riestra: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca3aa04aaa050ef3cb5030af4185484920068276d5414bc2c87969256587392d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,145
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,815
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,145 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb22…6478backed Under | 43c | 27,017$11,568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,449.33 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 57c | 12,075$6,891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,891.2 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 50c | 4,718$2,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,359 | 171 | 46.2%79 W · 92 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc2…4c80backed Over | 57c | 2,878$1,641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,640.55 | 95 | 62.1%59 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 23c | 2,106$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.59 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf003…08cdbacked Over | 57c | 1,709$974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$974.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 1,579$867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.39 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Under | 56c | 1,573$881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.1 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 57c | 1,398$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.87 | 507 | 46.7%237 W · 270 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 57c | 1,336$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.93 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab8…a331backed Over | 35c | 1,333$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.97 | 80 | 57.5%46 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6996…cf9abacked Over | 37c | 1,100$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.97 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 57c | 1,027$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.46 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed Over | 57c | 974.2$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.29 | 230 | 57.4%132 W · 98 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 60c | 938.96$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.77 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ef…9fadbacked Over | 57c | 815.25$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.69 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd73…4da1backed Over | 19c | 741.01$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.11 | 153 | 26.1%40 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…679ebacked Over | 36c | 681.13$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.21 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Over | 57c | 637.13$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.16 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x954e…927fbacked Over | 67c | 599.99$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.99 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 56c | 535.23$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.79 | 650 | 58%377 W · 273 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 59c | 500$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 59c | 500$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 12c | 445.88$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.16 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 52c | 435.06$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.77 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04b…3ce0backed Over | 57c | 271.49$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.75 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…7e41backed Over | 61c | 240.15$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.49 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc7…43e5backed Over | 22c | 233$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.36 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 57c | 230$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.1 | 307 | 54.7%168 W · 139 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab8…e32fbacked Over | 44c | 219.63$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.64 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Over | 57c | 196.07$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.76 | 332 | 66.3%220 W · 112 L | +24.8wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 37c | 186.75$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.24 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 58c | 177.91$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.98 | 477 | 58.1%277 W · 200 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 55c | 175.68$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.33 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb94…7bc0backed Under | 55c | 161.53$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.4 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 56c | 146.76$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.93 | 367 | 57.5%211 W · 156 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 58c | 138.48$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.57 | 477 | 56%267 W · 210 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Under | 58c | 137.43$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.15 | 159 | 56.6%90 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Over | 57c | 126.19$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.93 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cf…0425backed Over | 43c | 112.3$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.29 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea3d…2e9dbacked Over | 43c | 105.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.27 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 50c | 102.32$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.16 | 449 | 59%265 W · 184 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Under | 50c | 102.32$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.16 | 388 | 61.3%238 W · 150 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 68c | 99.3$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.52 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6687…b9ddbacked Under | 50c | 96.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.49 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe94c…1edebacked Under | 44c | 88.1$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.33 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 56c | 86.85$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 412 | 56.6%233 W · 179 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Under | 68c | 83.71$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.69 | 161 | 60.9%98 W · 63 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 79c | 78.97$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 50c | 77.6$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 221 | 45.7%101 W · 120 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef5c…6ababacked Under | 66c | 74.23$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 62 | 74.2%46 W · 16 L | +8.7wins | +0.14per pick | 60cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 61c | 64.46$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.32 | 242 | 53.3%129 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa93e…0a8cbacked Over | 22c | 60.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Over | 57c | 51.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 145 | 35.9%52 W · 93 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a05…7757backed Under | 53c | 40.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Over | 57c | 40.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 286 | 65%186 W · 100 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…a518backed Over | 46c | 33.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 50c | 23.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e4…d947backed Over | 47c | 23.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Under | 50c | 23.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 106 | 54.7%58 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…0748backed Over | 61c | 21.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb017…9f48backed Over | 70c | 21.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…7f72backed Over | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 117 | 47.9%56 W · 61 L | -9.7wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Over | 57c | 19.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | -6.3wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…a781backed Over | 54c | 18.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffe…9150backed Under | 66c | 16.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Under | 69c | 16.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 74c | 14.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grêmio FBPA vs. CD Riestra: O/U 1.5this page
- Grêmio FBPA vs. CD Riestra: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. CD Riestra: O/U 2.5Under won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. CD Riestra: O/U 3.5Under won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. CD Riestra: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Grêmio FBPA (-1.5)CD Riestra won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.