MLB · resolved market
Pirates vs. Nationals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca4fdd3c08d4ed176c7bb0f53d531f3a3f8e9c0530673483cca2cf6cfa515dbe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,345
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,804
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,345 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 49c | 1,529$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.97 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 58c | 1,373$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.56 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 44c | 1,048$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.17 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 50c | 1,000$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Under | 49c | 800$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392 | 326 | 51.5%168 W · 158 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 48c | 659.89$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.18 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 52c | 599$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.7 | 519 | 53.2%276 W · 243 L | -24.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Over | 51c | 521.38$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.3 | 358 | 54.5%195 W · 163 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0364…f19bbacked Under | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Under | 49c | 439.5$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.36 | 197 | 47.2%93 W · 104 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 667 | 51.9%346 W · 321 L | +30.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff52…e92dbacked Under | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5149…1fc0backed Over | 51c | 96.86$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.86 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e41…dc25backed Under | 57c | 55.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 494 | 50%247 W · 247 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…7be6backed Under | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,137 | 46.3%526 W · 611 L | +36.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eff…8490backed Over | 53c | 25.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pirates vs. Nationals: O/U 8.5this page
- NRFI: Pirates vs. NationalsYes won
- Pirates vs. NationalsNationals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.