Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs PARIVISION (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca5a38eda8f4bab66d49223a31d7e1f3b300adeab6c662d9a81b6b8bd34317f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Liquidof Team Liquid, PARIVISION
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,919
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,668
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,919 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d58…9a15backed PARIVISION | 44c | 5,150$2,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,263.52 | 148 | 40.5%60 W · 88 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdf…ec4bbacked Team Liquid | 49c | 3,211$1,588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,623.19 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked PARIVISION | 71c | 2,469$1,757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,757.19 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Team Liquid | 29c | 1,500$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,059.99 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…91adbacked Team Liquid | 66c | 1,345$884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.15 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -9.7wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x40f8…327dbacked PARIVISION | 68c | 1,000$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Team Liquid | 28c | 991.83$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.12 | 218 | 47.2%103 W · 115 L | +16.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…6fe0backed PARIVISION | 33c | 715$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.95 | 275 | 48%132 W · 143 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed PARIVISION | 45c | 664.72$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 641 | 49.9%320 W · 321 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x844a…3d8abacked Team Liquid | 58c | 663.48$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.71 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Team Liquid | 55c | 600$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…3964backed PARIVISION | 37c | 544.86$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.69 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x151f…807dbacked Team Liquid | 54c | 487.34$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.09 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11bc…d9fabacked PARIVISION | 42c | 296.56$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Team Liquid | 58c | 244.99$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.55 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked PARIVISION | 37c | 232.28$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.17 | 552 | 51.6%285 W · 267 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x953e…79ffbacked Team Liquid | 34c | 219.02$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.55 | 280 | 50%140 W · 140 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed PARIVISION | 71c | 213.92$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.19 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6a…56d6backed Team Liquid | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed Team Liquid | 56c | 180.36$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.36 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9273…fcf8backed PARIVISION | 44c | 138.55$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.96 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x217f…5d10backed Team Liquid | 29c | 116.58$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.77 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Team Liquid | 72c | 90$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed PARIVISION | 44c | 62.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd14…c90dbacked PARIVISION | 56c | 56.72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x910e…29bcbacked Team Liquid | 56c | 55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48f7…3aebbacked PARIVISION | 50c | 46.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 668 | 48.5%324 W · 344 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed PARIVISION | 69c | 46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 91 | 26.4%24 W · 67 L | -9.8wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb91…8700backed Team Liquid | 63c | 42.54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed PARIVISION | 46c | 40.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…1e51backed PARIVISION | 64c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…e041backed Team Liquid | 62c | 38.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 555 | 61.8%343 W · 212 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x037c…509ebacked Team Liquid | 44c | 33.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7659…158abacked Team Liquid | 53c | 30.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Team Liquid | 56c | 27.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked PARIVISION | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aaf…749dbacked PARIVISION | 63c | 23.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.