Tennis · resolved market
Transylvania Open: Emma Raducanu vs Greet Minnen
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca6a41c3ed536b7a798b1d1d90b44dd3b09077afb5b8d332c898799ce707a8a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raducanuof Raducanu, Minnen
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $129,334
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $169,330
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $129,334 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Minnen | 5c | 13,673$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.61 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Minnen | 4c | 11,944$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.41 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Minnen | 7c | 10,261$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.6 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Minnen | 7c | 6,673$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.1 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab2d…b1aabacked Minnen | 2c | 3,401$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.17 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Minnen | 9c | 2,910$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249 | 678 | 36%244 W · 434 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Minnen | 8c | 2,761$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.93 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95b5…0e15backed Minnen | 26c | 1,670$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc5…a45bbacked Raducanu | 74c | 1,079$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.41 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x479e…91c3backed Raducanu | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 441 | 63.7%281 W · 160 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd6…5f62backed Raducanu | 75c | 999.6$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.65 | 454 | 57.9%263 W · 191 L | -14.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Minnen | 31c | 955$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.58 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Minnen | 2c | 856.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde8c…6307backed Minnen | 3c | 784$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Minnen | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 275 | 39.6%109 W · 166 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…dfe1backed Minnen | 25c | 646.97$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.86 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd2…f9a6backed Raducanu | 74c | 537.97$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.98 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57c3…3201backed Raducanu | 74c | 527.54$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.16 | 189 | 57.7%109 W · 80 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Minnen | 8c | 500$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 139 | 23.7%33 W · 106 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Raducanu | 74c | 418.6$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.84 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Minnen | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Minnen | 5c | 346.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 1,106 | 41%454 W · 652 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3c15backed Raducanu | 76c | 312.48$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.15 | 683 | 50.1%342 W · 341 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Minnen | 27c | 299.98$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.99 | 296 | 36.8%109 W · 187 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46e…db14backed Raducanu | 75c | 266.87$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.71 | 188 | 63.8%120 W · 68 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…61b4backed Minnen | 28c | 250$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 374 | 44.1%165 W · 209 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Minnen | 25c | 249.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Minnen | 29c | 241.38$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9da2…ed3abacked Raducanu | 73c | 239.73$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.73 | 106 | 68.9%73 W · 33 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Raducanu | 72c | 228$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.84 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…f842backed Minnen | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02b1…c764backed Raducanu | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…849ebacked Minnen | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3d…7a79backed Raducanu | 74c | 166.22$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.22 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…05d5backed Minnen | 20c | 145.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Minnen | 25c | 133.54$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed Minnen | 27c | 116$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Raducanu | 72c | 111.11$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 1,240 | 41.2%511 W · 729 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Minnen | 26c | 80.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 289 | 33.2%96 W · 193 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Minnen | 27c | 73.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 491 | 43%211 W · 280 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x347e…4fd6backed Raducanu | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c08…3704backed Raducanu | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 99 | 52.5%52 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab50…6e96backed Raducanu | 77c | 65.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Minnen | 26c | 55.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Minnen | 21c | 50.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 348 | 42.2%147 W · 201 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Minnen | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Minnen | 31c | 48.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked Raducanu | 70c | 46.91$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Minnen | 28c | 42.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 602 | 40.5%244 W · 358 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7279…a05cbacked Raducanu | 73c | 42.25$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2304…6541backed Raducanu | 74c | 40.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed Minnen | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc39b…5754backed Raducanu | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Raducanu | 72c | 37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa23c…ae92backed Raducanu | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 179 | 59.8%107 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a00…0014backed Raducanu | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefb4…9653backed Raducanu | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 61 | 73.8%45 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 71cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1793…4ebbbacked Raducanu | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 940 | 60.6%570 W · 370 L | +11.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Raducanu | 80c | 25.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 2,561 | 63%1,613 W · 948 L | -10.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf06a…cfdabacked Raducanu | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00e0…8a94backed Raducanu | 73c | 23.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbae5…a0b1backed Raducanu | 73c | 20.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…11c4backed Raducanu | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…60e5backed Raducanu | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf5…840ebacked Raducanu | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 66cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Transylvania Open: Emma Raducanu vs Greet Minnenthis page
- Set Handicap: Raducanu (-1.5) vs Minnen (+1.5)Raducanu won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.