Serie A · resolved market
Will Juventus FC vs. Cagliari Calcio end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca8401852e633be45adfae060bc5e749d8c9c0673c5c72df21d03466f1b26324
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,128
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,305
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,128 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Yes | 10c | 10,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 13c | 5,519$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.38 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 16c | 2,679$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.64 | 225 | 51.6%116 W · 109 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 16c | 1,500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 366 | 30.9%113 W · 253 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 16c | 1,038$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.66 | 118 | 32.2%38 W · 80 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes | 18c | 635.29$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 21c | 500.82$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.09 | 356 | 46.6%166 W · 190 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9659…f19abacked Yes | 18c | 470.56$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 16c | 400$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 201 | 43.8%88 W · 113 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Yes | 15c | 286.01$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +7.4wins | +0.17per pick | 20cpaid | +285.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xff69…1981backed Yes | 19c | 279.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 17c | 211.76$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 419 | 43.9%184 W · 235 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 116 | 67.2%78 W · 38 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69db…283abacked Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…d7f5backed Yes | 16c | 156.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 18c | 139.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 196 | 52%102 W · 94 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 9c | 131.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 136 | 39.7%54 W · 82 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 20c | 130$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 200 | 33%66 W · 134 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6d…4e19backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +6.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…efdbbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Yes | 14c | 84.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 89 | 52.8%47 W · 42 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71d…63d2backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2886…0e62backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Yes | 20c | 52.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 298 | 62.4%186 W · 112 L | +34.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 284 | 45.4%129 W · 155 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Juventus FC vs. Cagliari Calcio end in a draw?this page
- Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2025-11-29?No won
- Will Juventus FC win on 2025-11-29?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.