Tennis · resolved market
Japan Women's Open: Naomi Osaka vs Jaqueline Cristian
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca89b04ce62d5ad6290c9d347cb81f7c6a81e220beb426387a23c863507e2c69
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cristianof Osaka, Cristian
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,961
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,357
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,961 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Cristian | 70c | 23,180$16,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,911.28 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Osaka | 7c | 22,561$1,544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,543.74 | 158 | 32.3%51 W · 107 L | -13.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d76…9168backed Cristian | 31c | 16,338$4,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,342.98 | 375 | 40.8%153 W · 222 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Osaka | 68c | 9,812$6,653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,652.53 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Osaka | 68c | 6,683$4,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,515.24 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Osaka | 49c | 6,261$3,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,052.16 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Osaka | 1c | 1,900$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 145 | 40.7%59 W · 86 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1609…7b1fbacked Osaka | 2c | 1,409$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Osaka | 65c | 1,342$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875.61 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1952…c5c8backed Cristian | 33c | 1,273$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$856.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed Osaka | 65c | 600$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Cristian | 35c | 500$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8406…0176backed Osaka | 68c | 442$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.56 | 106 | 54.7%58 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6c…c0d5backed Osaka | 65c | 430.04$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Osaka | 69c | 400$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Osaka | 69c | 373$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.04 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5916…8d4fbacked Cristian | 36c | 280.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.56 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18ea…f93bbacked Cristian | 34c | 265.24$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.06 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeed3…ce5dbacked Cristian | 34c | 265$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3db9…3d33backed Osaka | 67c | 225.25$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x875c…d3e8backed Osaka | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd211…628bbacked Osaka | 67c | 149.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0f…559abacked Osaka | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -6.0wins | -0.21per pick | 62cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3819…1774backed Osaka | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Osaka | 65c | 103.08$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60a1…1485backed Cristian | 34c | 102.17$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.17 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…b02ebacked Cristian | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 115 | 33.9%39 W · 76 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Osaka | 59c | 80$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93cb…3485backed Cristian | 32c | 79.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.39 | 306 | 39.9%122 W · 184 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Cristian | 31c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.32 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…7f8bbacked Cristian | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Cristian | 41c | 52.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Cristian | 35c | 51.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.43 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6158…81bcbacked Osaka | 65c | 49.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5a…5787backed Cristian | 32c | 47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Osaka | 69c | 43.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Osaka | 64c | 42.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Osaka | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7068…8236backed Osaka | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f0e…7b1fbacked Osaka | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb56b…7150backed Osaka | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 165 | 64.8%107 W · 58 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…07aabacked Osaka | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 167 | 62.9%105 W · 62 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec10…4d93backed Osaka | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…2ec1backed Osaka | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 351 | 57%200 W · 151 L | -13.4wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18e2…ca98backed Osaka | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 94 | 63.8%60 W · 34 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a64…bb41backed Osaka | 72c | 27.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.