Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will Casa Pia AC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca8a69881418df9e1c7b82b0829d17959b35dce9d076337d6ec33d84857f49ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,602
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,889
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,602 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 12c | 5,798$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.68 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2759…2b38backed Yes | 13c | 2,356$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.33 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73e5…e3d8backed Yes | 15c | 1,267$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b2…ee5bbacked Yes | 14c | 1,157$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 1c | 1,151$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 73 | 26%19 W · 54 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -48%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6534…7cc7backed Yes | 14c | 465$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.1 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd0…b719backed Yes | 13c | 296.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 12c | 275$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 297 | 54.5%162 W · 135 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1171…98dcbacked Yes | 13c | 248$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 14c | 199.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 911 | 48%437 W · 474 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 9c | 142.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 920 | 43.4%399 W · 521 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Yes | 12c | 120.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 244 | 66%161 W · 83 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bea…5175backed Yes | 10c | 119.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Yes | 12c | 116.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 126 | 64.3%81 W · 45 L | +16.3wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed Yes | 14c | 106.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Casa Pia AC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica end in a draw?this page
- Will Casa Pia AC win on 2026-08-16?No won
- Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-08-16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.