NHL · resolved market
Spread: Rangers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca9220efd49e44639bb28ef54bd0c5e219139882a0f0a4040b8d65dddd63ae6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ducksof Rangers, Ducks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,279
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,398
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,279 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Ducks | 68c | 768$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.76 | 751 | 55.8%419 W · 332 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Rangers | 30c | 611.1$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.12 | 484 | 52.3%253 W · 231 L | +14.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Rangers | 32c | 495$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.96 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…5cc8backed Ducks | 70c | 428.33$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.33 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Rangers | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 225 | 43.1%97 W · 128 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Rangers | 17c | 284.62$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae7…cf61backed Ducks | 69c | 217.39$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.39 | 130 | 60%78 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2128…4c6dbacked Rangers | 31c | 164.08$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.87 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -9.6wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Ducks | 70c | 143.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.52 | 74 | 71.6%53 W · 21 L | +7.2wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Ducks | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Ducks | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 312 | 57.4%179 W · 133 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Rangers | 31c | 82.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Ducks | 67c | 79.98$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Rangers | 30c | 76.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd3…c066backed Ducks | 69c | 76.81$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Rangers | 31c | 73.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Rangers | 24c | 72.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…65cdbacked Rangers | 32c | 63.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Rangers | 34c | 58.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Rangers | 33c | 54.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 799 | 56.1%448 W · 351 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Rangers | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x042e…f947backed Rangers | 32c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Ducks | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Ducks | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 62 | 71%44 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Ducks | 70c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rangers (-1.5)this page
- Ducks vs. RangersDucks won
- Ducks vs. Rangers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Ducks vs. Rangers: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.