NHL · resolved market
Ducks vs. Rangers: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86dbf70d81af16d6c49a0e534221a730e4a6eda3749fb6b7012e459b36636a1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,202
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,466
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,202 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Under | 54c | 19,375$10,463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,912.67 | 1,345 | 54.8%737 W · 608 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 45c | 13,276$6,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,015.26 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 46c | 8,305$3,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,820.3 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…f62dbacked Under | 55c | 5,310$2,945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,364.53 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 46c | 3,061$1,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,408.06 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf457…d1a6backed Under | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.86 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed Over | 46c | 867.39$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399 | 104 | 56.7%59 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 46c | 508.5$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.91 | 484 | 52.3%253 W · 231 L | +14.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 54c | 500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Over | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 46c | 283.48$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.4 | 514 | 52.3%269 W · 245 L | +17.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 52c | 250$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 346 | 53.2%184 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad2…71f8backed Over | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 122 | 50.8%62 W · 60 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…f540backed Under | 55c | 195.96$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.18 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 44c | 194.71$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.67 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x740b…1d47backed Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9852…111abacked Under | 56c | 142.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.86 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x086f…8bc3backed Over | 46c | 101$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ac6bbacked Over | 46c | 90$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…5714backed Under | 51c | 82$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.18 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 46c | 56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x042e…f947backed Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9f…c934backed Under | 55c | 49.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 214 | 54.2%116 W · 98 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…5210backed Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c3…81e3backed Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…bdddbacked Under | 55c | 34.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -7.2wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Under | 53c | 26.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ec…daabbacked Over | 46c | 24.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2643…28c2backed Over | 49c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc21a…c2c3backed Under | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb9…65bfbacked Over | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4662…807ebacked Under | 55c | 20.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…9ef9backed Under | 55c | 18.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 490 | 53.7%263 W · 227 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ducks vs. Rangers: O/U 6.5this page
- Ducks vs. RangersDucks won
- Ducks vs. Rangers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Rangers (-1.5)Ducks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.