Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Norrie (-1.5) vs Agut (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcaaceefb4ab98e03a44317ead9a4999767c06698b00df2159d81974e2000f6d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Norrieof Norrie, Agut
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,810
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,146
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,810 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Agut | 44c | 1,580$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.45 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Norrie | 56c | 1,000$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.5 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Agut | 4c | 949$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.36 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Agut | 45c | 439.64$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.63 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dae…a50bbacked Norrie | 57c | 345.83$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.14 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d91…bb2abacked Norrie | 53c | 188.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.77 | 105 | 57.1%60 W · 45 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x271a…8fc7backed Norrie | 57c | 158.65$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.42 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Agut | 48c | 139$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.72 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa373…b6dcbacked Norrie | 54c | 138.98$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.98 | 543 | 48.1%261 W · 282 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a1…e6f5backed Agut | 48c | 68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Norrie | 58c | 53.27$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea4e…5ecbbacked Norrie | 53c | 50.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9209…dc9bbacked Norrie | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19fe…dbd8backed Norrie | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Norrie | 48c | 28.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a6…bbd5backed Norrie | 52c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43dc…88cfbacked Norrie | 52c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…bbb5backed Norrie | 56c | 24.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6014…5a58backed Norrie | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a01…6d22backed Norrie | 53c | 19.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Norrie (-1.5) vs Agut (+1.5)this page
- Agut vs. Norrie: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Agut vs. Norrie: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Agut vs. Norrie: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Over won
- Rotterdam Open: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Cameron NorrieNorrie won
- Set 1 Winner: Agut vs NorrieNorrie won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.