CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Aurora Gaming (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcabc770c151bf63d762d6c5fa299b14c8e19797e4548a222f742cb7b059fee7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Aurora Gamingof Gentle Mates, Aurora Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,420
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,134
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,420 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Gentle Mates | 64c | 24,279$15,539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,538.54 | 216 | 45.4%98 W · 118 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…414dbacked Aurora Gaming | 37c | 19,439$7,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,265.39 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Aurora Gaming | 67c | 8,831$5,917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,914.15 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d34…7c8cbacked Gentle Mates | 33c | 8,000$2,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,640 | 214 | 24.8%53 W · 161 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Aurora Gaming | 66c | 6,000$3,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,020 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…3934backed Aurora Gaming | 65c | 4,078$2,656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,422.22 | 238 | 52.9%126 W · 112 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Gentle Mates | 33c | 3,030$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.9 | 180 | 51.1%92 W · 88 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…b9d1backed Aurora Gaming | 36c | 2,806$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,795.56 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff33…4aedbacked Aurora Gaming | 36c | 2,778$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,777.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked Aurora Gaming | 66c | 2,286$1,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.12 | 836 | 52.5%439 W · 397 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Gentle Mates | 25c | 1,744$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.68 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x988d…9899backed Gentle Mates | 34c | 1,673$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.75 | 263 | 44.5%117 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa52c…ef80backed Gentle Mates | 34c | 1,639$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.73 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Aurora Gaming | 67c | 1,500$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.99 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Gentle Mates | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 116 | 31.9%37 W · 79 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8206…7cacbacked Gentle Mates | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe283…7190backed Aurora Gaming | 36c | 930.56$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.56 | 965 | 45.7%441 W · 524 L | +10.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Gentle Mates | 12c | 793.59$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.77 | 1,611 | 45.4%731 W · 880 L | +30.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa264…e26abacked Gentle Mates | 33c | 757.58$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 130 | 43.1%56 W · 74 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x215d…ba6dbacked Gentle Mates | 38c | 529.47$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 118 | 47.5%56 W · 62 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Aurora Gaming | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 283 | 51.9%147 W · 136 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…79f9backed Gentle Mates | 34c | 440$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.6 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -13.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…a28dbacked Aurora Gaming | 79c | 407.55$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.26 | 55 | 65.5%36 W · 19 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Aurora Gaming | 66c | 400$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 98 | 38.8%38 W · 60 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6777…2612backed Gentle Mates | 35c | 400$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -11.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -23%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Aurora Gaming | 66c | 349.99$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119 | 220 | 56.4%124 W · 96 L | +19.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbb…fc88backed Gentle Mates | 36c | 323$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.05 | 81 | 37%30 W · 51 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x285b…5231backed Aurora Gaming | 64c | 300$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x89a8…c206backed Aurora Gaming | 67c | 298.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.51 | 98 | 60.2%59 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ee…5c4abacked Gentle Mates | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4627…7c23backed Aurora Gaming | 69c | 289.86$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.86 | 374 | 48.4%181 W · 193 L | -16.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07f0…c11dbacked Gentle Mates | 27c | 218.49$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb00a…c58cbacked Aurora Gaming | 62c | 209.47$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.6 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe49c…773ebacked Aurora Gaming | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…bfe9backed Aurora Gaming | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 633 | 45.2%286 W · 347 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Gentle Mates | 13c | 185.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd053…3202backed Gentle Mates | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf66a…9157backed Gentle Mates | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 102 | 38.2%39 W · 63 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Aurora Gaming | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 367 | 51%187 W · 180 L | -15.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb04…8b8abacked Gentle Mates | 15c | 140$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dda…edcfbacked Gentle Mates | 34c | 120.26$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Aurora Gaming | 63c | 120$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.27per pick | 46cpaid | +128.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Gentle Mates | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,181 | 22.5%266 W · 915 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Aurora Gaming | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 95 | 37.9%36 W · 59 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…60e9backed Gentle Mates | 20c | 99.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 550 | 43.1%237 W · 313 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa97…494fbacked Aurora Gaming | 80c | 99.55$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Gentle Mates | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Gentle Mates | 19c | 79.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 1,969 | 46.7%919 W · 1,050 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2b…adcfbacked Gentle Mates | 33c | 69.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 172 | 36.6%63 W · 109 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa61d…df1abacked Aurora Gaming | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 166 | 49.4%82 W · 84 L | -15.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Gentle Mates | 32c | 58.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 218 | 46.8%102 W · 116 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02aa…9c2abacked Aurora Gaming | 69c | 47.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 289 | 64%185 W · 104 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef35…c333backed Aurora Gaming | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 87 | 65.5%57 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df1…72e7backed Gentle Mates | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +155.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38b8…5d35backed Gentle Mates | 33c | 31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 364 | 37.4%136 W · 228 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked Aurora Gaming | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 821 | 46.3%380 W · 441 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ce…01a9backed Aurora Gaming | 67c | 20.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Aurora Gaming | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 354 | 54.2%192 W · 162 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.