Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: REKONIX vs MOUZ (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group C
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcace4c8060eec43cc7885f598f245699f2d0cc5a06b277b8d8acd028cbd7e8a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MOUZof REKONIX, MOUZ
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,720
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,338
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,720 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed MOUZ | 66c | 16,578$11,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,578.02 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…9a4abacked REKONIX | 34c | 15,524$5,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,245.34 | 234 | 35.9%84 W · 150 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…4601backed REKONIX | 12c | 10,714$1,284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,284.06 | 414 | 55.6%230 W · 184 L | +41.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed REKONIX | 33c | 5,896$1,937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,936.82 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c52…1a59backed MOUZ | 67c | 2,000$1,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 63 | 74.6%47 W · 16 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 59cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbadb…31a7backed MOUZ | 68c | 1,500$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.99 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked REKONIX | 32c | 1,237$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.43 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b1…1b71backed REKONIX | 8c | 1,178$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.85 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedfa…fd66backed REKONIX | 12c | 1,057$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.83 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed REKONIX | 32c | 1,011$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.49 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc8…adf7backed REKONIX | 36c | 877.05$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked REKONIX | 32c | 575.92$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.05 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd3…3d7abacked REKONIX | 17c | 569.98$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.9 | 290 | 47.9%139 W · 151 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked REKONIX | 37c | 502$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.74 | 121 | 55.4%67 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +134.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked MOUZ | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 106 | 43.4%46 W · 60 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed REKONIX | 23c | 386.98$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.81 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked REKONIX | 32c | 372.88$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.93 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…e3a8backed MOUZ | 67c | 329.6$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.31 | 252 | 66.3%167 W · 85 L | +20.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28f6…79c0backed REKONIX | 12c | 304$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbe…1f4abacked MOUZ | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.12 | 93 | 65.6%61 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe39c…71c4backed REKONIX | 19c | 233.29$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed REKONIX | 9c | 204.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked REKONIX | 33c | 200$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -7.3wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8084…f4a3backed REKONIX | 10c | 196.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…cb8dbacked REKONIX | 35c | 170.49$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.67 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ee…878ebacked MOUZ | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31b9…150bbacked REKONIX | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 592 | 54.1%320 W · 272 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41a3…017dbacked MOUZ | 68c | 98.86$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed REKONIX | 34c | 73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfce8…2686backed REKONIX | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 145 | 66.2%96 W · 49 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…7b4fbacked REKONIX | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 354 | 61.3%217 W · 137 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc19…31c4backed MOUZ | 66c | 55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad6…c1c4backed REKONIX | 37c | 45.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x054e…51bdbacked MOUZ | 74c | 42.91$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe53…2dbabacked MOUZ | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 444 | 74.8%332 W · 112 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…8a58backed MOUZ | 66c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4358…3e76backed MOUZ | 67c | 23.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed MOUZ | 65c | 16.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: REKONIX vs MOUZ (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group Cthis page
- Dota 2: REKONIX vs MOUZ - Game 1 WinnerMOUZ won
- Dota 2: REKONIX vs MOUZ - Game 2 WinnerMOUZ won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.