TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: REKONIX vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
MOUZof REKONIX, MOUZ
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$418,103
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$483,908

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $418,103 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 305 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3a09…f9f7backed REKONIX41c37,023$15,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,224.6456955.5%316 W · 253 L+22.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed MOUZ68c29,507$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,507.191,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9db8…2effbacked MOUZ63c20,401$12,872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,529.033647.2%17 W · 19 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed MOUZ68c20,000$13,644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,356.6671143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf991…3965backed REKONIX33c16,437$5,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,500.6831248.4%151 W · 161 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked REKONIX42c15,500$6,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,509.9919847%93 W · 105 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked MOUZ59c12,000$7,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,887.2141944.2%185 W · 234 L-1.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed REKONIX42c11,656$4,926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,925.9736248.6%176 W · 186 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a05…12a2backed REKONIX18c11,210$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000.0647650.8%242 W · 234 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed REKONIX31c11,111$3,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,444.4115951.6%82 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed REKONIX43c11,000$4,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,729.8329348.5%142 W · 151 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked REKONIX41c10,932$4,484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,483.951,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked REKONIX33c8,700$2,839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,838.5189741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2586…f071backed MOUZ77c7,912$6,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,823.7534468.9%237 W · 107 L+26.3wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2039…2e5fbacked REKONIX40c7,500$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0003652.8%19 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed REKONIX39c7,457$2,909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,909.396557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed REKONIX42c7,250$3,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,027.4927153.5%145 W · 126 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4aec…4ce9backed MOUZ78c6,638$5,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,475.630667.3%206 W · 100 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked MOUZ62c6,274$3,866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,407.761,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed MOUZ58c6,000$3,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5301,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked MOUZ59c5,400$3,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,21495342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc592…1ccebacked REKONIX31c4,833$1,513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,512.759042.2%38 W · 52 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked MOUZ62c4,608$2,838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,769.622340.4%90 W · 133 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa113…bb53backed MOUZ61c4,375$2,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,700.085244.2%23 W · 29 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93bd…bbc5backed MOUZ62c4,124$2,549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,574.5553764.4%346 W · 191 L+26.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked MOUZ60c4,063$2,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,632.261,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9679…9315backed MOUZ71c4,004$2,839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,165.2416058.8%94 W · 66 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x219a…f65bbacked REKONIX35c3,950$1,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3763435.3%12 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-24.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed REKONIX31c3,885$1,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,220.7969644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c8f…4d12backed MOUZ65c3,850$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,349.8835062.6%219 W · 131 L+44.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+26.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked MOUZ66c3,370$2,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,139.541,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked REKONIX42c3,303$1,371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,371.1335951.3%184 W · 175 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed MOUZ61c3,187$1,948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,238.4830336.6%111 W · 192 L-18.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa14c…23a1backed REKONIX41c3,135$1,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,283.3335151.3%180 W · 171 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4fb2…5c04backed REKONIX1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30712.8%2 W · 69 L+0.2wins0.00per pick3cpaid-90.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df4…153cbacked MOUZ72c2,908$2,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$823.975238.5%20 W · 32 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e24…7014backed MOUZ57c2,870$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,220.0210453.8%56 W · 48 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked MOUZ65c2,792$1,815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$977.241242.2%174 W · 238 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed REKONIX41c2,765$1,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,145.3941351.8%214 W · 199 L+1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed MOUZ59c2,656$1,567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,088.9772035.1%253 W · 467 L-24.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed REKONIX33c2,596$867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$866.7589440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked REKONIX15c2,557$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.6699844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a86…cc01backed MOUZ67c2,500$1,670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83010051%51 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57b4…b46bbacked REKONIX37c2,500$925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92524246.7%113 W · 129 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc156…f76cbacked REKONIX24c2,330$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56016547.9%79 W · 86 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed MOUZ74c2,304$1,694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609.568649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed REKONIX34c2,250$762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$762.4958744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40db…ca8cbacked MOUZ76c2,215$1,683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.5854058.9%318 W · 222 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed MOUZ65c2,166$1,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$764.231,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed REKONIX1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202110.5%1 W · 210 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-99.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5b1…1b71backed REKONIX17c1,992$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.326741.8%28 W · 39 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-17.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed MOUZ71c1,990$1,413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$577.0747046.6%219 W · 251 L+1.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60dd…40e5backed MOUZ73c1,931$1,407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.4733453%177 W · 157 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x08b8…e7dabacked REKONIX31c1,833$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.3431055.2%171 W · 139 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked MOUZ73c1,771$1,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.591,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked MOUZ63c1,767$1,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$648.4550850.8%258 W · 250 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed REKONIX33c1,750$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57081029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96d7…3a17backed MOUZ60c1,711$1,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$683.555438.9%21 W · 33 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-29%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed MOUZ64c1,710$1,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$616.7145750.8%232 W · 225 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x26d6…56efbacked MOUZ60c1,600$968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631.9956542.8%242 W · 323 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a01…c89ebacked MOUZ71c1,579$1,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.5228251.8%146 W · 136 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked MOUZ71c1,516$1,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.843049.1%211 W · 219 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f76…aea6backed REKONIX35c1,507$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.9418356.8%104 W · 79 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe30d…9362backed REKONIX31c1,500$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-34.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50a8…b615backed MOUZ69c1,449$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.282152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb238…4961backed MOUZ74c1,412$1,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.9812548.8%61 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebb9…1d15backed REKONIX36c1,394$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5009535.8%34 W · 61 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-19.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x74ef…1ac6backed MOUZ67c1,329$896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.647660.7%289 W · 187 L-0.2wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfe9…5f53backed MOUZ60c1,300$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5201369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+19.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a0d…40cabacked MOUZ67c1,212$812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.355976.3%45 W · 14 L+4.8wins+0.08per pick68cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4f56…d7dbbacked REKONIX20c1,208$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.668538.8%33 W · 52 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6eac…ed37backed MOUZ57c1,200$684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51657449%281 W · 293 L+33.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x18c2…529abacked MOUZ63c1,151$725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.710551.4%54 W · 51 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed REKONIX31c1,150$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3511,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b57…de6bbacked REKONIX26c1,150$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.9219338.9%75 W · 118 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bb7…7028backed REKONIX19c1,145$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.836839.7%27 W · 41 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6478…c969backed REKONIX39c1,145$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.542040%8 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-39.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4c9c…e006backed REKONIX37c1,128$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.3522663.3%143 W · 83 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed REKONIX12c1,124$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.8940014.8%59 W · 341 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x59e2…1c55backed MOUZ66c1,060$696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.5947548%228 W · 247 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc714…d152backed REKONIX39c1,032$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.1921158.3%123 W · 88 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed MOUZ68c1,022$695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.9260349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1943…1561backed MOUZ65c1,010$661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.445352.1%236 W · 217 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefdd…1e8abacked MOUZ58c1,000$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42015050%75 W · 75 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x070f…ed83backed REKONIX31c1,000$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31026247.7%125 W · 137 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fd3…3d7abacked REKONIX24c1,000$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.3129047.9%139 W · 151 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed REKONIX22c1,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22053652.6%282 W · 254 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed REKONIX14c1,000$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.696245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed REKONIX34c999.98$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.9918550.8%94 W · 91 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa0b…2debbacked MOUZ57c994.22$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.2219547.7%93 W · 102 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0bd9…56cfbacked MOUZ62c984.38$607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.15922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-62.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8010…c05fbacked REKONIX2c954.36$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2516932.5%55 W · 114 L+7.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-34.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xab12…764ebacked MOUZ68c900$614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.527060%162 W · 108 L-11.3wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked MOUZ65c887.2$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.8950749.7%252 W · 255 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x08cf…22b9backed MOUZ60c878.16$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.3953758.8%316 W · 221 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba06…8024backed MOUZ69c874.99$604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.4915950.3%80 W · 79 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed REKONIX40c870.33$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.0541050.2%206 W · 204 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8a5…26a1backed MOUZ57c866.02$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.3911154.1%60 W · 51 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-7.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed MOUZ66c860.48$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.6225150.2%126 W · 125 L+0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58a2…c1c2backed MOUZ61c820.55$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.55887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.28per pick60cpaid+39.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.