Champions League · resolved market
Will Seattle Sounders beat Botafogo?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcae7fc6f2eea5be0fe77e56efb7c78bbaaf46be003f848a196ae5ccc6a349235
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,648
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,741
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,648 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3e5…2a3ebacked No | 75c | 8,754$6,556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,197.31 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 25c | 5,399$1,353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,353.23 | 368 | 51.1%188 W · 180 L | +15.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Yes | 25c | 3,151$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.93 | 187 | 58.8%110 W · 77 L | +18.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Yes | 27c | 2,390$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.3 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed No | 73c | 1,740$1,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.8 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c8…090cbacked No | 78c | 1,029$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.14 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 28c | 962.71$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.56 | 239 | 42.7%102 W · 137 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…756abacked No | 73c | 650$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.5 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +4.4wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +49%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 27c | 558.79$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.11 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Yes | 22c | 535.01$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.35 | 307 | 54.1%166 W · 141 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab98…a89ebacked No | 74c | 494.69$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.94 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed No | 70c | 430.73$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.22 | 247 | 42.5%105 W · 142 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed No | 72c | 380.56$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.56 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e6b…4ca1backed Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Yes | 25c | 250$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 240 | 47.1%113 W · 127 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked No | 72c | 175$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 244 | 55.7%136 W · 108 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 74c | 107.69$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 291 | 36.8%107 W · 184 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed5…e9bfbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -56%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8696…e066backed Yes | 19c | 91.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84dc…9c02backed Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 114 | 29.8%34 W · 80 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed No | 72c | 62.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 71c | 56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 449 | 55.7%250 W · 199 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf95b…1692backed No | 72c | 43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63e3…04b1backed Yes | 29c | 35.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab2…e698backed No | 73c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed No | 73c | 28.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 71c | 17.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 469 | 56.5%265 W · 204 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c7…b990backed No | 72c | 17.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Seattle Sounders beat Botafogo?this page
- Will Botafogo beat Seattle Sounders?Yes won
- Will Botafogo vs. Seattle Sounders end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.