Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb188c12c9c3d521221ec857f079a197c69b0075c8fdbabc057518ea6bedf276
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,830
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,818
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,830 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3016…54e9backed No | 0c | 6,032$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 136 | 14.7%20 W · 116 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 29c | 855.81$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.31 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 33c | 691.49$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.79 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 59c | 595.99$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.59 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 33c | 569.03$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.26 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 60c | 516.19$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.76 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 325$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.23 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 29c | 217.59$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.39 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 16c | 203.89$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.82 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 41c | 203.89$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.79 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 8c | 199.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.33 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 70c | 178.99$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.86 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18d…3ec0backed No | 67c | 156.61$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…afd7backed Yes | 25c | 152.29$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.95 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc5…33d3backed No | 54c | 129.88$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.1 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 54c | 122.71$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.17 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 60c | 114.7$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.03 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 47c | 110.98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 110$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.3 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 50c | 103$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.62 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1041…f452backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.96 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 14c | 98.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.63 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 31c | 86.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 62c | 80$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.55 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…4425backed No | 67c | 65.53$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 61c | 62.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 48c | 46.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 78c | 33.03$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 71c | 26.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 72c | 25.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 20.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 13?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 13?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 13?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 13?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.