La Liga · resolved market
CD Mirandés vs. Real Valladolid CF: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb1d48e09525c6d7f0711c823d080c3edfbecea837a75b33c8de7c30994c2290
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,108
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,108 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 47c | 4,926$2,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,610.78 | 200 | 54%108 W · 92 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 53c | 4,926$2,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,610.78 | 691 | 42.5%294 W · 397 L | -21.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 39c | 1,575$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.19 | 4,729 | 47.1%2,225 W · 2,504 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 66c | 1,079$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.38 | 3,444 | 43%1,482 W · 1,962 L | +31.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f6e…84b4backed Over | 47c | 433.72$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.41 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over | 47c | 425.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.64 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 53c | 299.29$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.35 | 2,339 | 48.5%1,135 W · 1,204 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 53c | 268.55$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.33 | 501 | 49.5%248 W · 253 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Under | 24c | 242.54$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.21 | 95 | 28.4%27 W · 68 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x417e…85e4backed Under | 10c | 212.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…30a0backed Over | 47c | 210.86$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.06 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 59c | 203.39$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.39 | 223 | 57%127 W · 96 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 57c | 175.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.76 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Under | 55c | 149.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.49 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7482…da18backed Under | 24c | 141.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +101.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x862a…d26bbacked Over | 45c | 138$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.9 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 53c | 131.62$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.15 | 1,651 | 43.9%724 W · 927 L | -21.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce72…cbefbacked Over | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 55c | 123.27$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.8 | 1,035 | 47.9%496 W · 539 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1155…2315backed Over | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22af…399abacked Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +8.1wins | +0.19per pick | 28cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 54c | 78.49$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 1,559 | 51.6%804 W · 755 L | -9.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc582…853cbacked Under | 13c | 77.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 85 | 10.6%9 W · 76 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 48c | 72.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 223 | 50.2%112 W · 111 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 55c | 57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…54f0backed Under | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…4397backed Over | 61c | 39.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 92 | 46.7%43 W · 49 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 55c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 223 | 66.8%149 W · 74 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Under | 56c | 25.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 52c | 21.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 170 | 32.9%56 W · 114 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CD Mirandés vs. Real Valladolid CF: O/U 2.5this page
- CD Mirandés vs. Real Valladolid CF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CD Mirandés vs. Real Valladolid CF: O/U 1.5Over won
- CD Mirandés vs. Real Valladolid CF: O/U 3.5Under won
- CD Mirandés vs. Real Valladolid CF: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.