NHL · resolved market
AHL: Manitoba Moose vs. Laval Rocket
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb267498f4e491aad850e6608ef4c4b48b691b10c96b5f3c2e33ff427b634897
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Manitoba Mooseof Manitoba Moose, Laval Rocket
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,371
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,578
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,371 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb911…f9fbbacked Manitoba Moose | 46c | 1,556$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…b86abacked Manitoba Moose | 42c | 1,540$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$893.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Laval Rocket | 8c | 600$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +445.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x485e…fcb5backed Laval Rocket | 9c | 562.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -56%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60e1…ededbacked Laval Rocket | 54c | 548$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd29…fb37backed Laval Rocket | 58c | 533$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2b…0a14backed Laval Rocket | 58c | 522$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fae…fbd5backed Laval Rocket | 54c | 515$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf807…880ebacked Laval Rocket | 54c | 493$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe803…a584backed Laval Rocket | 58c | 485$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Manitoba Moose | 54c | 418.23$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.49 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c6…72a8backed Laval Rocket | 10c | 350$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0341…a679backed Laval Rocket | 41c | 242.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c74…00bcbacked Laval Rocket | 12c | 173.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d1…68b3backed Laval Rocket | 15c | 150$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +550.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Laval Rocket | 8c | 149.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…30d5backed Laval Rocket | 52c | 91.26$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.82 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Manitoba Moose | 50c | 91.16$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.67 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…58d7backed Laval Rocket | 28c | 87.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Laval Rocket | 45c | 77.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 292 | 41.1%120 W · 172 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Manitoba Moose | 34c | 62.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.35 | 225 | 16.4%37 W · 188 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47e3…7b48backed Laval Rocket | 62c | 32.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf56f…9e25backed Laval Rocket | 66c | 30.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4df…73d2backed Manitoba Moose | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +158%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.