South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CD Riestra win on 2026-05-05?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb39a50e8c91772d62c897d3087de51286da51845356314757f82003c2f52360
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,587
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,474
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,587 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ca1…ddcdbacked Yes | 8c | 5,959$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.46 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.7wins | +0.28per pick | 33cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x31cb…a34bbacked No | 70c | 4,324$3,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,297.28 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 30c | 2,766$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.29 | 3,449 | 51.4%1,773 W · 1,676 L | +22.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Yes | 30c | 1,364$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.9 | 650 | 58%377 W · 273 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed No | 68c | 668$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.76 | 230 | 57.4%132 W · 98 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed No | 79c | 640$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.2 | 286 | 51.7%148 W · 138 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…5cf0backed Yes | 3c | 583.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 117 | 17.9%21 W · 96 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 69c | 500.5$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.55 | 1,308 | 53.7%702 W · 606 L | +5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Yes | 17c | 353.29$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.63 | 316 | 47.8%151 W · 165 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 30c | 308.6$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.58 | 465 | 30.3%141 W · 324 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 22c | 299.31$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.28 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 18c | 250$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 830 | 34.5%286 W · 544 L | -18.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfe…bfb7backed Yes | 32c | 242.42$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…4907backed Yes | 30c | 210$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes | 32c | 203$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.96 | 507 | 46.7%237 W · 270 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3b…380cbacked Yes | 6c | 178.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 69c | 169.75$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.62 | 1,261 | 53.6%676 W · 585 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 783 | 51%399 W · 384 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbad…4f53backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Yes | 30c | 79.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 388 | 61.3%238 W · 150 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 69c | 73.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 26c | 62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 934 | 45.1%421 W · 513 L | -28.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 73c | 56.28$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…02f3backed No | 69c | 47.32$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7913…f3e2backed No | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 70c | 41.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked No | 72c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 505 | 46.7%236 W · 269 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 32c | 32.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 181 | 60.2%109 W · 72 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89db…d0efbacked No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d8…7520backed No | 71c | 21.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 70c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 169 | 60.9%103 W · 66 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc942…a8a1backed No | 67c | 15.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CD Riestra win on 2026-05-05?this page
- Will CD Riestra vs. Grêmio FBPA end in a draw?No won
- Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-05-05?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.