Europa Conference League · resolved market
FC Sion vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb60948d5cd944b4e218561f5dc409f99ab3d2146644553d6df0ac90dc565d97
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,413
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,171
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,413 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 39c | 3,141$1,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,916.03 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 46c | 1,856$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,005.88 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 1,456$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.35 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 62c | 1,132$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.7 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 61c | 921$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.81 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 61c | 921$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.81 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 38c | 744.66$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.97 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 61c | 694.26$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.5 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 72c | 678.34$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.41 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 33c | 595.82$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.23 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 35c | 327.43$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.64 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Over | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.27 | 274 | 37.2%102 W · 172 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 75c | 270$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 81 | 65.4%53 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 39c | 244.18$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.95 | 655 | 35.6%233 W · 422 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 71c | 183.49$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 62c | 95.16$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Over | 73c | 81$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 239 | 49.4%118 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 32c | 56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 61c | 48.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 433 | 44.6%193 W · 240 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 61c | 39.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 189 | 40.2%76 W · 113 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x946f…67c1backed Over | 70c | 38.01$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Under | 30c | 38.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 334 | 46.7%156 W · 178 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 61c | 34.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 239 | 51.5%123 W · 116 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07e8…faaebacked Over | 47c | 31.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +43%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x099c…e42cbacked Under | 62c | 25.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 51c | 20.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 294 | 70.1%206 W · 88 L | +21.6wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 62c | 17.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 254 | 40.6%103 W · 151 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 63c | 16.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Sion vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 3.5this page
- FC Sion vs. AFC Ajax: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Sion vs. AFC Ajax: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Sion vs. AFC Ajax: AFC Ajax O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Sion vs. AFC Ajax: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Sion vs. AFC Ajax: FC Sion O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Sion vs. AFC Ajax: FC Sion O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Sion vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Sion vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Sion vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Sion vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 4.5Over won
- FC Sion vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: AFC Ajax (-1.5)AFC Ajax won
- Spread: AFC Ajax (-2.5)FC Sion won
- Spread: FC Sion (-1.5)AFC Ajax won
- Spread: FC Sion (-2.5)AFC Ajax won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.