Asian League · resolved market
Will FC Machida Zelvia vs. Kawasaki Frontale end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb9bdfde72889eca2dbfd1178d3dfd891a49802f1ab4bd630a3e13b6994be175
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,366
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,700
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,366 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 18c | 2,131$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,757.32 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 74c | 1,311$969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968.96 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Yes | 20c | 910$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f2…b422backed Yes | 30c | 821.33$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff4…b609backed Yes | 17c | 507$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.74 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 73c | 491.63$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.99 | 626 | 52.6%329 W · 297 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 68c | 345.66$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.24 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 74c | 343.27$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.82 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 80c | 309.92$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.65 | 390 | 58.2%227 W · 163 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked No | 80c | 296.47$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.07 | 153 | 58.8%90 W · 63 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…d2ffbacked Yes | 34c | 291$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1f…6a93backed Yes | 18c | 250$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.49per pick | 31cpaid | +208.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…2719backed Yes | 31c | 227.97$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.97 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce5…af2ebacked No | 71c | 189.22$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.23 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4306…618abacked No | 58c | 141.92$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 22c | 129.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.03 | 464 | 22.6%105 W · 359 L | -22.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 17c | 106.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1edf…2392backed Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +90.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 79.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe29c…a31dbacked No | 25c | 75.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 185 | 42.7%79 W · 106 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 63c | 64.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…82d7backed Yes | 30c | 60.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.1 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b7…fefdbacked No | 78c | 54.68$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.52 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Yes | 27c | 46.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.26 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Yes | 27c | 46.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.26 | 145 | 57.2%83 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 29c | 45.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a74…6631backed Yes | 34c | 42.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed No | 75c | 39.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2502…87e5backed No | 66c | 32.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 66c | 28.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 721 | 44.1%318 W · 403 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea2…fe7ebacked Yes | 67c | 22.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9f…b23bbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Machida Zelvia vs. Kawasaki Frontale end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Machida Zelvia win on 2026-03-28?No won
- Will Kawasaki Frontale win on 2026-03-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.