La Liga · resolved market
Spread: Atletico Madrid (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcbc92831660ac0abf46fa6f9f8a629093e95c740e683b7c3c3873fd45405ba7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athletic Clubof Atletico Madrid, Athletic Club
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,214
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,709
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,214 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Atletico Madrid | 14c | 5,358$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.5 | 908 | 43.6%396 W · 512 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf35…7e61backed Atletico Madrid | 17c | 1,250$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf70a…541dbacked Atletico Madrid | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Atletico Madrid | 16c | 498.9$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 262 | 42.7%112 W · 150 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bae…55b5backed Atletico Madrid | 21c | 400$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -34%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed Atletico Madrid | 20c | 268.54$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.71 | 319 | 52.4%167 W · 152 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Athletic Club | 80c | 146.77$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 146 | 45.2%66 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb376…f6a0backed Atletico Madrid | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d66…0e16backed Atletico Madrid | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Atletico Madrid | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 489 | 34.4%168 W · 321 L | +26.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Atletico Madrid | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 370 | 39.2%145 W · 225 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9df…343fbacked Atletico Madrid | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atletico Madrid (-1.5)this page
- Athletic Club vs. Atletico Madrid: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Athletic Club vs. Atletico Madrid: O/U 1.5Under won
- Athletic Club vs. Atletico Madrid: O/U 2.5Under won
- Athletic Club vs. Atletico Madrid: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.