Mls · resolved market
Minnesota United FC vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcbd4e101ec11a0f24d708dcdc211304bc2729a45346681dcd3b30cf5db7ee2a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,656
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,873
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,656 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 33c | 3,840$1,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,266.7 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 67c | 3,403$2,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,122.98 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 25c | 1,300$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.98 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Over | 36c | 1,071$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.62 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 73c | 978.28$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.44 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 62c | 954.52$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.13 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 37c | 500$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -8.1wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 26c | 299.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.66 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 36c | 265.06$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.18 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 26c | 247.12$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.42 | 103 | 19.4%20 W · 83 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 67c | 202.92$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.06 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 73c | 196.76$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 67c | 179$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.07 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 65c | 122.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.45 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 63c | 120$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 75c | 117.2$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 248 | 59.3%147 W · 101 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa78d…130bbacked Over | 44c | 110.95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 31c | 84.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 75c | 52.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 34c | 45.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 77c | 43.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf92e…d539backed Under | 74c | 39.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033c…b4afbacked Under | 68c | 36.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x846d…d14fbacked Under | 69c | 35.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2494…17b3backed Under | 63c | 31.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a03…279abacked Over | 41c | 28.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Under | 64c | 26.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 121 | 62%75 W · 46 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 75c | 26.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecda…6f0abacked Under | 65c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1643…6ec8backed Under | 75c | 19.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 40 | 77.5%31 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Under | 60c | 19.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 63c | 16.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota United FC vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Minnesota United FC vs. Los Angeles FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Minnesota United FC vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Minnesota United FC vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Minnesota United FC vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles FC (-2.5)Minnesota United FC won
- Spread: Minnesota United FC (-1.5)Los Angeles FC won
- Spread: Minnesota United FC (-2.5)Los Angeles FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.