South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Sarmiento win on 2026-04-02?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcbf94ab629ab1de2ef46375d2a3cf98439a1aabf0c11122b2902545d43136423
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,125
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,880
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,125 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b14…5301backed No | 0c | 11,308$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed No | 11c | 4,883$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.03 | 308 | 41.2%127 W · 181 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 14c | 2,798$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.78 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 34c | 2,302$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,526.58 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff4…b609backed No | 70c | 2,097$1,473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,473.23 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f9…0eaabacked No | 13c | 729.08$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.78 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 14c | 694.88$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.56 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 16c | 470.89$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.17 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0f…574cbacked No | 15c | 400.33$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.77 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x586d…c5dcbacked No | 70c | 396.31$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d29…c9eebacked No | 12c | 355.2$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.62 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 67c | 332.78$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.83 | 378 | 51.3%194 W · 184 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 33c | 290.85$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.87 | 465 | 30.3%141 W · 324 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 12c | 256.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 97 | 27.8%27 W · 70 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed No | 16c | 233.55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 162 | 55.6%90 W · 72 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d12…cc43backed No | 21c | 230.51$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.86 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +36%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 11c | 224.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 61c | 198.69$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.19 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 32c | 180.57$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.61 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 66c | 179.96$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.78 | 551 | 55%303 W · 248 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked No | 12c | 171.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 412 | 56.6%233 W · 179 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed No | 69c | 161.54$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.46 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…d0e2backed Yes | 33c | 147.81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.03 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 57cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a11…ef8ebacked No | 71c | 136.81$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.13 | 101 | 58.4%59 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 29c | 124$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 17c | 119$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7190…00e7backed No | 12c | 115.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 67c | 110.39$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.46 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 29c | 107.42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.08 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 15c | 106.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 31c | 100.01$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.51 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked No | 13c | 98.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…13eebacked No | 75c | 98.88$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.16 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cc…1958backed No | 25c | 98.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed No | 13c | 98.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 335 | 60.9%204 W · 131 L | +18.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 69c | 96.8$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.79 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7502…c66abacked No | 12c | 92.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…ef55backed No | 21c | 90.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Yes | 32c | 58.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 99 | 36.4%36 W · 63 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Yes | 30c | 49.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.89 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -8.7wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Yes | 29c | 47.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 69c | 43.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 169 | 60.9%103 W · 66 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…f31bbacked Yes | 34c | 42.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4160…e42dbacked Yes | 50c | 39.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -30%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Yes | 34c | 38.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 188 | 59%111 W · 77 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…2e3abacked Yes | 34c | 38.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +4.3wins | +0.19per pick | 55cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Yes | 34c | 38.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 261 | 60.9%159 W · 102 L | +20.4wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…31c3backed Yes | 34c | 38.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked Yes | 33c | 37.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 70c | 31.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Yes | 69c | 29.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 184 | 46.2%85 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 57c | 27.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…9111backed Yes | 64c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 20 | 95%19 W · 1 L | +7.8wins | +0.39per pick | 56cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x230f…bb8cbacked No | 70c | 23.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked No | 70c | 23.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 69 | 63.8%44 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 57c | 21.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Yes | 72c | 21.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce5…af2ebacked No | 70c | 21.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a35…2580backed No | 71c | 20.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 18.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 154 | 59.1%91 W · 63 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 77c | 16.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd6…a39cbacked Yes | 72c | 16.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Sarmiento win on 2026-04-02?this page
- Will CA Barracas Central vs. CA Sarmiento end in a draw?No won
- Will CA Barracas Central win on 2026-04-02?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.