South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2025-12-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc12b83cc56ec7d53ed1ef77f84242382264d6b18ff746697b9f59ae29c6f03e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,442
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,292
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,442 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x538e…cd32backed Yes | 0c | 2,782$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdb…4851backed Yes | 1c | 2,349$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 11c | 1,798$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.47 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 68c | 1,666$1,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.86 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 32c | 1,595$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.13 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 79c | 1,172$924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.12 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ce3bbacked Yes | 18c | 542$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.56 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 69c | 426.71$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.71 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4266…0e08backed Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 25c | 319.24$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.67 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8479…37f8backed Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 86 | 24.4%21 W · 65 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x625a…7bb3backed Yes | 34c | 265.15$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 14c | 256.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 67c | 237.06$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.71 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03de…4bfdbacked No | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Yes | 33c | 150.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb327…0fccbacked Yes | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…3de3backed Yes | 15c | 139$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked Yes | 25c | 108$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…c2a0backed Yes | 20c | 95.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 302 | 31.1%94 W · 208 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked Yes | 27c | 85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc39d…e24cbacked Yes | 25c | 79.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf9…1abfbacked Yes | 23c | 51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 58cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fd…a0bfbacked Yes | 32c | 48.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…f691backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2342…d7cebacked No | 75c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 71c | 33.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 119 | 59.7%71 W · 48 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c9…bacfbacked Yes | 32c | 32.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…bdfcbacked No | 75c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62e6…f251backed No | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 69c | 27.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 125 | 62.4%78 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d10…e17cbacked No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc789…3907backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…7959backed No | 77c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x891e…ea69backed No | 77c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2025-12-13?this page
- Will Racing Club vs. Estudiantes de La Plata end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Racing Club win on 2025-12-13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.