NHL · resolved market
Panthers vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc166fd9ec5a02e56c5c835e908594f8f1f0a8b6b102ff92d7ed02579fdf1615
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,383
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,308
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,383 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb973…ff16backed Over | 57c | 1,495$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.21 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 44c | 1,165$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.47 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Over | 56c | 1,154$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.24 | 751 | 55.8%419 W · 332 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 43c | 1,142$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.81 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 43c | 1,116$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.23 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 57c | 773$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.61 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 60c | 500.58$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.58 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 40c | 469.15$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.15 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 43c | 444$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.08 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 57c | 308.77$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Under | 43c | 164.36$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.69 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 43c | 105.5$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.83 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Over | 57c | 99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.43 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Over | 26c | 96.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…6a69backed Over | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 231 | 58%134 W · 97 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf263…e9c1backed Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe924…b2c7backed Over | 57c | 85$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 58c | 75.36$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.84 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3863…ae6abacked Over | 56c | 73.21$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Under | 43c | 51.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 43c | 49.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Over | 55c | 41.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Under | 44c | 41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 550 | 48.2%265 W · 285 L | -11.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Over | 56c | 39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeba…d2d8backed Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b7…8b0cbacked Under | 49c | 32.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 56c | 31.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Panthers vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5this page
- Panthers vs. Maple LeafsMaple Leafs won
- Panthers vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Panthers (-1.5)Maple Leafs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.