NHL · resolved market
Panthers vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04502ef1846684808c3893f1bceb85d25c87195d7de293e2f3fac49a3d9eb84e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,629
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,417
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,629 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Under | 56c | 50,000$28,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,999.97 | 485 | 45.4%220 W · 265 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 44c | 17,678$7,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,780.17 | 514 | 52.3%269 W · 245 L | +17.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Over | 44c | 11,111$4,889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,888.84 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 44c | 10,180$4,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,479.2 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 55c | 8,549$4,701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,847.48 | 510 | 45.5%232 W · 278 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 44c | 2,968$1,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300.98 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 44c | 2,750$1,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,218.87 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 45c | 2,500$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Over | 44c | 2,224$987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986.72 | 145 | 53.1%77 W · 68 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Over | 45c | 1,667$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 45c | 1,493$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.56 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x773c…cf18backed Over | 44c | 1,205$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 70 | 54.3%38 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08fe…aedfbacked Over | 44c | 1,136$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d41…dd43backed Over | 45c | 907$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 44c | 795$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.8 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 44c | 504.1$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.7 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…c9fdbacked Over | 44c | 490.91$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 43c | 478$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.54 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15f9…607ebacked Under | 56c | 440$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.6 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 43c | 400$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Over | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 44c | 295$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.8 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 44c | 255.5$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.65 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53b0…4daabacked Over | 45c | 222.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Over | 44c | 199$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.9 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 43c | 191.81$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.48 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 54c | 189.99$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.4 | 624 | 47.3%295 W · 329 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 45c | 177.78$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 46c | 152.17$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Over | 44c | 150$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 309 | 52.4%162 W · 147 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Under | 54c | 135$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.1 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5f…4884backed Over | 44c | 120.09$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.84 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4977…8fd6backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 177 | 54.2%96 W · 81 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5abb…061bbacked Over | 44c | 90$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 181 | 48.6%88 W · 93 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd56c…1cf9backed Under | 55c | 77.45$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 45c | 72.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 44c | 67.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd5…0acbbacked Under | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 56c | 51.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fef…a3d3backed Over | 46c | 47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0f…09debacked Over | 44c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc07…e9f2backed Over | 46c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9014…db4abacked Over | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 160 | 48.1%77 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f9…e894backed Over | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 156 | 47.4%74 W · 82 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Under | 55c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 550 | 48.2%265 W · 285 L | -11.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4161…272dbacked Over | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b7…8b0cbacked Over | 44c | 30.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…a9f7backed Over | 44c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…8137backed Over | 46c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5af1…f988backed Over | 44c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 133 | 46.6%62 W · 71 L | -7.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Panthers vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5this page
- Panthers vs. Maple LeafsMaple Leafs won
- Panthers vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Panthers (-1.5)Maple Leafs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.