Bundesliga · resolved market
Karlsruher SC vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc27dec930fd6f7a1e2463bbc31036bb17c06b84cb479a9c89865e2bfc422dac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,863
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,732
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,863 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 24c | 2,281$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.26 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 19c | 1,511$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.03 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 38c | 1,500$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd411…7a18backed Over | 9c | 1,500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Over | 46c | 759.87$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.54 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 78c | 676.94$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.39 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 66c | 425.89$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.82 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 17c | 299.25$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.27 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…7140backed Over | 48c | 243.42$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.64 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 27c | 232.34$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.64 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed Under | 57c | 223.68$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.18 | 73 | 78.1%57 W · 16 L | +6.9wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Over | 20c | 171.76$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 53c | 147.69$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.4 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 116 | 35.3%41 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 52c | 78.5$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.68 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 17c | 76.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 54c | 66.58$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 54c | 64.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 40c | 60.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…a78fbacked Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 47c | 41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 207 | 53.6%111 W · 96 L | +22.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 54c | 37.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 54c | 36.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Over | 28c | 35.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Over | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Under | 67c | 15.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.32per pick | 57cpaid | +57%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Karlsruher SC vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 3.5this page
- Karlsruher SC vs. SV Darmstadt 98: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Karlsruher SC vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 1.5Over won
- Karlsruher SC vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 2.5Over won
- Karlsruher SC vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Karlsruher SC (-2.5)SV Darmstadt 98 won
- Spread: SV Darmstadt 98 (-2.5)Karlsruher SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.