Bundesliga · resolved market
Karlsruher SC vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3448cdc4c9c6ba018d97224e1472d01b776be9f2c7fe8337fdffedd3f87a7456
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,680
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,241
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,680 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 45c | 9,519$4,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,293.64 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 55c | 9,090$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,090.5 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 60c | 2,184$1,307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,307.13 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec59…bb35backed Over | 65c | 2,123$1,377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.88 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 45c | 1,799$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.21 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 33c | 1,500$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,005 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 48c | 1,240$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.81 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa5…e01bbacked Over | 34c | 588.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.41 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 58c | 433.78$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.97 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc02a…b43fbacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 67c | 247.43$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.23 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Over | 53c | 207.92$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.92 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -5.3wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 26c | 196.09$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.96 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…5922backed Over | 74c | 195.11$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc10d…e679backed Under | 33c | 166.27$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.87 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 56c | 160.85$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.11 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e69…2650backed Under | 70c | 150$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Over | 52c | 116.71$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.02 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 32c | 114.09$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0c…0852backed Over | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2af…3880backed Over | 54c | 94.9$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.55 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 34c | 94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Over | 52c | 91.95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.14 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 34c | 90.7$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 66c | 85$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 44c | 68.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1edb…a60bbacked Over | 33c | 66.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.26 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 67c | 61$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 33c | 61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Under | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…d0d2backed Under | 52c | 53.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 51c | 51.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.21 | 130 | 73.1%95 W · 35 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 68c | 51.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x274e…1d72backed Under | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55f5…01b0backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8720…ea73backed Over | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Under | 28c | 45.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Under | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…a78fbacked Over | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 52c | 42.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 207 | 53.6%111 W · 96 L | +22.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 120 | 69.2%83 W · 37 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 75c | 39.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5f…8eadbacked Over | 78c | 38.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb844…8cf6backed Over | 54c | 29.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8de7…61c0backed Over | 68c | 27.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…256cbacked Over | 48c | 26.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9132…6607backed Under | 45c | 26.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 52c | 24.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Under | 66c | 15.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Karlsruher SC vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 2.5this page
- Karlsruher SC vs. SV Darmstadt 98: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Karlsruher SC vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 1.5Over won
- Karlsruher SC vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 3.5Under won
- Karlsruher SC vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Karlsruher SC (-2.5)SV Darmstadt 98 won
- Spread: SV Darmstadt 98 (-2.5)Karlsruher SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.